27M, in a 3 year relationship with 26F. We have even talked about engagement and so on.
I make $ ~ 130K a year. I have a finance degree and work in a very niche industry (that's not necessarily stable). I have a lot of savings, and I also have some family money (but not trust fund type rich or anything). I am actually the more frugal one in the relationship. We definitely live very well, but I'm someone that takes public transit to work, brings my own coffee to the office, etc.
So makes $60K a year as a teacher. It's a respectable living where I work, but obviously not as much as I make. My girlfriend grew up in a modest (but comfortable) middle class home. In her case, I think having access to the stuff we have is a big novelty to her, and she is borderline giddy about it.
VERY worth noting...when we started dating, I had a very average income. She didn't even know I had any money for the first year, and didn't have these expectations.
So about our lifestyle now, we do live well. We live in a rental that's very very affordable. But we both have our own cars, have nice clothes, eat out/order in at least 1 or 2 times a week, go on nice trips, etc... we are very very lucky, and I try to have a grateful attitude about things.
Well, as our relationship has progressed towards marriage, I have gotten pretty concerned about some things. These are all recent
- My girlfriend is now very excited about engagement rings. What started as moissonite has changed after looking at a jewellery store. She's now expecting and hinting that she wants a ~ 2 carat diamond that will likely cost $6 or $7K. She randomly went to the mall with her mom, they went to a jewellery store together, and she sent me a picture of a ring priced this much. I think this is so inappropriate. Because now she's setting this expectation for her mom too, one that I've never even acknowledged.
- Same with other general things in our future. My GF is going on a trip to Palm Springs soon (I can't go due to work). We were talking about summer travel, and she wants us to go to both an expensive weekend trip for a concert, and go to Europe. I asked her how much she can afford, and she said a fair bit. This just means she's totally neglecting her own savings. I mean, we could afford it, but it just comes off as spoiled.
- As we talk about homes in the future, her expectations are fricking high.
- Kind of an extension to the other things above, but we already have a fairly expensive lifestyle. I just don't think she realizes how much stuff costs, because she doesn't really pay for it, or know what it takes to save money. Her birthday basically cost me $600 between gifts, and 2 different dinners out we had (one was with her family). And she never expects any type of sacrifice
This actually makes me sad. We are so lucky, and it feels like it just causes fights. However, I am genuinely worried that she will always want more if we are to get married.
I do think some of this is a me problem, I am probably too uptight for someone that is doing very well financially.
Am I just being a cheap ass?
TL;DR 27M I am worried about how my 26F girlfriend of 3 years always wants expensive material things.

Tez2, a reputable Rockstar insider has suggested on the GTA Forums that GTA 6 is likely to be released this year with a tentative release date of 2024.
According to my own reports which date back to June 2021, this seems to be the case. My sources have said that Grand Theft Auto 6 has been aiming for a 2024 release date for some time, but speculation and past reveal/release schedules of the likes of GTA 5 and Red Dead Redemption 2 suggest the game will be delayed until 2025.
If I were to guess – I believe the game would release in the holiday of 2025 instead of the spring.
As for when the announcement is made is unclear, but typically Rockstar Games likes to announce its big reveals on its own. So to set expectations, I wouldn’t necessarily expect the game to be announced at E3. Instead, I expect some form of reveal trailer in Q4 2023 to coincide with past reveals.
According to my own sources, one of the major reasons for such a long-winded “delay” is that GTA 6 will release on current-generation consoles only. With the tentative 2024 date being planned as far back as 2021, it was a means of ensuring that GTA 6 would have a sufficient console market to release on.
In late 2022, Rockstar Games had a security breach that resulted in over 70 videos on GTA 6 gameplay surfacing online. In its subsequent earnings call, Take-Two Interactive addressed investors to state that the leak was unfortunate, but they believe it had no impact on development.
“There’s no evidence that any material assets were taken, which is a good thing, and certainly the leak won’t have any influence on development or anything of the sort, but it is terribly disappointing and causes us to be ever more vigilant on matters relating to cybersecurity”, it was said.
As for GTA 6, for now, we’ll need to continue sitting tight and see what gets announced in the hopefully near future.
When do you think GTA 6 will be announced?
For more from Insider Gaming, check out details on THE FINALS BETA that starts today.
Related

TLDR;
I am uncomfortable with my wife's relationship with her boss. We discussed boundaries, but I feel like she's gaslighting me. I have no idea what to think anymore.
​
At the beginning of covid (Spring 2022), I (41M) noticed my wife (39F) started getting friendly with a colleague at work (mid-40's M). She would bring him up from time to time, talk about their new/shared interest (making cocktails). I noticed he would be messaging her directly on her personal phone. I thought this was a bit odd because her company commissions everybody a work phone. Clearly it was more than just work related. At the time, I figured it was just a few message here and there -- sporadic pictures of food, drinks, travel, etc. No big deal.
Throughout the years, he became her boss and it seemed as though she was talking about him a bit more often. Being very career oriented myself, I figured having a good relationship with your boss is a good thing. She would bring him up now and then, but the frequency became a tad more perhaps. When covid restrictions started lifting, they began traveling together. Upon return from a work trip, she spoke about how they had dinner together (just the two of them). Showed me pictures of the food, and drinks and discussed how fun it was. I thought it was weird that out of a larger work group, that somehow only the two of them ended up going to a fancy dinner together. When I asked about it, she had some story that seemed plausible. I trusted her entirely, so didn't really think twice about it.
In late 2022, I coincidentally noticed he messaged her while we were at a dinner party at a friends house. Her response to his message was abrupt. As in, she saw his message, stopped mid-sentence during a conversation and responded. Later that evening, I inquired about it and asked what was so important. I found out that night that they've been privately messaging for the last 2+ years far more frequently than I thought. She claimed, it was completely innocent. She offered to show me the recent messages, to which I declined. I trusted her. We had a lengthy conversation about how I was not comfortable since he was her boss and there is a power imbalance. I stated, although innoccent the majority of affairs start out innocent and people often don't realise unti it's too late. I asked, why would she put herself in a situation to risk everything we've built together over the past 18 years. She agreed, said she would stop texting him at inappropriate times.
In January 2023, she happened to be showing me something on her phone. I noticed when she opened What's App that is was opened to a thread with him. I was shocked, confused and hurt. When we spoke a few weeks ago about my concerns, she promised that she would stop talking to him privately. Her response, was something to the effect of, "when he messages me off hours, I wait until 9-5 to respond" and "You're over thinking this, it's nothing". We got into an argument. I stated that perhaps she was being too pedantic about following the established boundaries and she ultimately was still going against the spirit of what we talked about. I later found out that he was sending her messages with links to bars for their next big up coming international trip --just her, not to the rest of the group travelling. She seemed to think another man invited a married woman to a bar separate from the entire group wasn't innappropriate. We discussed again and I set firmer boundaries. No caveats, no edge cases. Simply put, stop messaging him directly. No more personal interactions outside work. If he messaged her, she would force the conversation to a group chat. No more individual interactions. She agreed.
Currently while this latest work trip, my insecurities got the best of me. I messaged her, stating I was feeling uncomfortable and want to confirm the boundaries were clear. I sent her a video of someone on instagram talking about the same problem we're having; in hindsight, I think I sent the video to somehow reassure myself that I wasn't overacting. Her response was nothing -- literally. She saw the message at 3am (local time), woke up at 6am, ate breakfast and got ready to go site seeing for the day. It wasn't until I forced the conversation at 8am that she acknowledged the message. We got on a call and argued more. She once again gave the perfunctory responses; she's sorry, she loves me, she's respecting the boundaries, nothing to worry about, she'll do whaat it takes to regain trust. But it just rang hollow, it seemed so insincere, so empty. As if she just checked out and was trying to get me off the phone.
At this point, my head is spinning. The person to whom I've dedicated my entire adult life, is someone I no longer can say I definitely trust. Is she having an emotional affair, physical affair, on the verge of either, I have no idea. I am so incredibly hurt and I feel betrayed. She put herself in a situation that she supposedly thought innocent, sure. But after we discussed my concerns and defined boundaries, she did mental gymnastics and found a way to continue. The when she finally agreed to fully stop, she ignored my messages which were clear requests for reassurance.
I've somehow turned from a confident and self assured man, into someone who is constantly wondering if his wife is cheating on him. I simultaneously feel like I'm justified and overreacting, but I have no idea anymore.

Context It took me 5 attempts to run a sub 3 hour marathon. Posts on this subreddit have been really helpful for me over a couple years, so I wanted to share my experience in case it helps anyone, especially if you've fallen short of a goal or two or are looking for some more "longitudinal" data. Rather than a full race report of the last race, I want to give an overview of the training it took me to get here.
Background Mid-20's M. Mediocre HS runner (800m ~2:05, 1600 in 4:40’s, 5K <17:30). Ran for fun during college but not on a team. First marathon in 2019. Picked up the miles during COVID and ran 4 marathons in 2022 & 2023.
Marathons

1. Spring 2019 - 3:02 high - Looking back, I made plenty of rookie mistakes during my homegrown training plan, which was basically one long run and two tempo sessions per week. This approach was inefficient and lacked a solid base. I peaked at around 50 miles for 2 weeks but most of the time was under 40 miles. I trained on the hilly course and the weather was perfect during the race. Predictably, I started way too fast, completing the first half in just over 1:26. I hit the wall at mile 21 and barely managed the last two miles at around 8 minutes each.
   
2. Spring 2022 - 3:08 high - My training improved significantly, building a base of over 30 miles per week for eight months. For the last couple of months, I followed JD's 18-week 2Q plan (40mpw version) and peaked at about 45 miles per week. Aiming for a sub-2:55 finish, I completed a tune-up half marathon in 1:23:30 two weeks before the marathon, which in hindsight was a mistake. On race day, challenging weather conditions (cold, sleet, crosswinds, and sun) and unexpected "rolling" hills made the course tougher than expected. I started with another marathoner targeting a 2:53 to 2:55 finish and reached the halfway point at 1:26 flat, which was probably (definitely) too fast. Mentally, I struggled with the idea of a second lap. I started slowing at mile 19, lost the 3-hour pace during mile 20, and completely bonked at mile 24. Walked it in with cramps and muscle spasms, but I felt like I gave it my all.
   
3. Spring 2022 - 3:07 - Four weeks after my second marathon, I decided to try again, thinking the last one was kind of a 21-mile marathon-pace workout followed by a 5-mile easy jog (nope). I recovered for a couple of weeks, did some stretching, and repeated the last two weeks of workouts. The course was way easier, and I didn't have to travel. Although the weather was tolerable, it became warmer than desired, reaching 60°F. Running with a good group, I finished the first half just over 1:30. I increased my pace slightly for the next six miles but couldn't maintain it after mile 23. In hindsight, this whole idea was unwise. While I'm glad I attempted it, the chances of success were slim. Fortunately no injuries.
   
4. November 2022 - 3:11 low - getting slower?? I planned to run the NYC Marathon for fun with a family member, but they got injured in September, so I decided to attempt another sub-3-hour finish. I felt great after completing JD's 10K plan and added light weightlifting twice a week over the summer. I ran a half at 1:22:20 comfortably 6 weeks out, then switched to the 18/55 2Q workouts for the rest of the block. My training pace and tune-up suggested a 2:53 finish, but I aimed for a conservative 1:28:30 first half due to the challenging NYC course. Also, I splurged on Endorphin Pro 2's for the race and trained this block in nylon-plated Speed 2's. On race day, the hot and humid weather prompted me to adjust my plan, aiming for a 1:30 first half. After exiting the Verrazano Bridge, wow the sun was intense, and I felt uneasy already. Despite the heat, the crowd was amazing, and the race was exciting. I completed the first half on target, but slowed down around mile 15 and struggled from mile 21 onwards, finishing with a walk-hobble-jog. My finishing place would've been around 2:58 in 2019, so I felt good about my effort. The experience taught me that I can't control the weather. I'm so glad I got to run this race, though!
   
5. March 2022 - 2:56 high - Finally! After taking a full month off, I picked an easier course and then followed JD's 18/55 plan for 15 weeks, with more miles and faster paces. I peaked at 60 miles per week for four weeks, with my highest 7-day total reaching about 80 miles due to the timing of long runs. I maintained my light weightlifting program twice a week and paid more attention to nutrition, ensuring I ate enough to maintain my weight. One of my favorite workouts was 15 miles with 3x2 miles at under 6:00/mi and one mile under 5:50. I was hitting paces from 10K training last summer. During this training block, I avoided major injuries or illnesses and only had to deal with a bit of travel. On race day, the weather was chilly but so preferable to heat. I planned to run a conservative first half at 1:28:30 and maintain a 6:45/mi pace until mile 20, even though my marathon pace during training was 6:15-6:25/mi. The race went according to plan, and I felt more comfortable than in any previous marathon. My heart rate stayed in Zone 3 until mile 15. I increased my effort with about five miles to go, but the wind prevented me from making up much time. Crossing the finish line, I mostly felt relieved and grateful to be there. I finally knew sub-3 wasn't impossible for me... also building a strong aerobic base takes time; the benefits of 1.5 years of serious training were clear.
   

Hope this helps someone who has fallen short of a goal or two. I guess it really is a marathon, not a sprint.

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Cruella (2021) (MA/4K) $6 (MA/HD) $3.75 (GP/HD) $2.75
Da Vinci Code (2006) (MA/HD) $7
Daddy's Home 1-2 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $5.25
Dallas Buyers Club (2013) (iTunes/HD) Ports to MA $3
Daniel Craig Collection 5-Movie (Vudu/4K) $20
Dark Knight (2008) (MA/HD) $5
Dark Waters (2019) (MA/HD) $5.75
Darkest Hour (2017) (MA/HD) $2.75
Day After Tomorrow (2004) (MA/HD) $6.75
DC League of Super-Pets (2022) (MA/HD) $4.75
Deadpool 2 (2018) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $3.25
Dear Evan Hansen (2021) (MA/HD) $4.25
Death on the Nile (2022) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $5.25 (GP/HD) $3.50
Death Wish (2018) (Vudu/HD) $2.25
Dentist 1-2 Collection (1996-1998) (Vudu/HD) $6
Detective Knight Collection 1-3 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $14 $5.50 Each
Devil Wears Prada (2006) (MA/HD) $5.75
Dictator (2012) (Vudu/HD) $2.50
Die Hard 1-5 (MA/HD) $16 $4.75 Each
Dirty Dancing (1987) (Vudu/4K) $5.25 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $4
Dirty Grandpa (2016) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6
Disaster Artist, The (2017) (Vudu/HD) $6.25
Disneynature Born in China (2017) (MA/HD) $5.25
Django Unchained (2012) (Vudu/HD) $2.50
Do the Right Thing (1989) (MA/4K) $6
Doctor Strange (2016) (MA/4K) $6.50 (iTunes/4K) $4.25 (MA/HD) $3.75 (GP/HD) $2
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (2022) (MA/4K) $6 (MA/HD) $2.75 (GP/HD) $2
Dog (2022) (Vudu/HD) $3.25
Dolittle (2020) (MA/4K) $6 (MA/HD) $3.50
Don't Breathe (2016) (MA/HD) $5.50
Don't Breathe 2 (2021) (MA/4K) $8
Don't Tell a Soul (2021) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $5
Don't Worry Darling (2022) (MA/HD) $5.25
Doorman (2020) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3.50
Doors (1991) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $4
Downton Abbey: A New Era (2022) (MA/HD) $4
Dr. Seuss' How The Grinch Stole Christmas (2000) (iTunes/4K) $5.50 (MA/HD) $5
Dracula (1931), Frankenstein (1931), The Bride of Frankenstein (1935), The Wolf Man (1941), The Invisible Man (1933), The Mummy (1932) (MA/HD) $18.50
Dracula 2000 (2000), II: Ascension (2003) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $11 $6 Each
Dracula Untold (2014) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $2.75 (iTunes/4K) $4
Dragonheart 5-Movie (MA/HD) $15
Dredd (2012) (Vudu/4K) $5 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3.50
Drive (2011) (MA/HD) $4.25
Drugstore Cowboy (1989) (Vudu/HD) $5
Dumb and Dumber To (2014) (iTunes/HD) Ports to MA $3.25
Dune (2021) (MA/4K) $5 (MA/HD) $2
Dying of the Light (2014) (Vudu/HD) $2.25
E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982) (MA/4K) $6.25 (iTunes/4K) $5 (MA/HD) $3
Early Man (2018) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $5.25
Easter Sunday (2022) (MA/HD) $6.50
Echo Boomers (2020) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $4
Eddie the Eagle (2016) (MA/HD) (iTunes/4K) $6
Edward Scissorhands (1990) (MA/HD) $3
Eighth Grade (2018) (Vudu/HD) $5.75
Elvis (2022) (MA/4K) $6.75 (MA/HD) $4.50
Elysium (2013) (MA/HD) $3.25
Emperor's New Groove (2000) (GP/HD) $5.50
Empire of Light (2022) (GP/HD) $4
Encanto (2021) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) (GP/4K) $3.50
Enough Said (2013) (MA/HD) $2.75
Equalizer (2014) (MA/4K) $7.75 (MA/HD) $3.75
Equalizer 2 (2018) (MA/4K) $7.25 (MA/HD) $2.75
Equilibrium (2002) (Vudu/HD) $5.50
Escape from L.A (1996) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6.25
Eternals (2021) (MA/4K) $6.75 (MA/HD) $4.50 (GP/HD) $3
Everest (2015) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $3 (iTunes/4K) $4
Evil Dead II (1987) (Vudu/4K) $4.25
Ex Machina (2015) (Vudu/4K) $6.50 (Vudu/HD) $4
Expendables 1-3 (Vudu/HD) $4.50
Eyes of Tammy Faye (2021) (GP/HD) $4.25
F9: The Fast Saga + Director's Cut (2021) (MA/4K) $5.50 (MA/HD) $3.50
Fabelmans (2022) (MA/HD) $6.50
Fahrenheit 451 (2018) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $4.50 (GP/HD) $3
Fantasia (1940) (MA/HD) $7 (GP/HD) $5
Fantasia 2000 (2000) (MA/HD) $7 (GP/HD) $5
Fantastic Beasts Collection 1-3 (MA/HD) $8.50
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (2022) (MA/4K) $5.50 (MA/HD) $3
Fantastic Four (2015) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $4.50
Fantasy Island (2020) (MA/HD) $7
Far and Away (1992) (MA/HD) $3.25
Farewell, The (2019) (Vudu/HD) $5.50
Fast & Furious Collection 1-8 (MA/4K) $27.50 1-9 (MA/HD) $10
Fatale (2020) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $3.50
Father Stu (2022) (MA/HD) $5.50
Fatherhood (2021) (MA/HD) $3.75
Fatman (2020) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $5.25
Field of Dreams (1989) (MA/4K) $7.50 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $6
Fifth Element (1997) (MA/HD) $6.75
Fifty Shades of Grey 3-Movie + Unrated (MA/HD) $10
Finding Dory (2016) (MA/4K) $5.75 (iTunes/4K) $3.50 (GP/HD) $1.25
Finding Nemo (2003) (MA/4K) $6.75 (iTunes/4K) $5.25 (GP/HD) $3
Firestarter (1984) (MA/HD) $3.25
First Purge (2018) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $4.50
Five Feet Apart (2019) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $2.75
Flatliners (2017) (MA/HD) $4.50
Flushed Away (2006) (MA/HD) $6.50
Forbidden Kingdom (2008) (Vudu/HD) $4
Ford v Ferrari (2019) (MA/4K) $7.75 (MA/HD) $4.75
Forever My Girl (2018) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $3
Forever Purge (2021) (MA/HD) $5.50
Forrest Gump (1994) (Vudu/4K) $7.25 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $5.50
Founder, The (2017) (Vudu/HD) $5
Fox and the Hound (1981) (MA/HD) $6.50 (GP/HD) $5
Fox and the Hound 2, The (2006) (MA/HD) $4 (GP/HD) $3
Foxcatcher (2014) (MA/HD) $4.50
Frankenstein (1931) (MA/4K) $6.50
Frankenstein (1931) (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $4.50
Free Guy (2021) (MA/4K) $7.50 (MA/HD) $4.75 (GP/HD) $3.25
French Dispatch (2021) (MA/HD) $5 (GP/HD) $3.50
From Dusk till Dawn (1996) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $4.50
Fruitvale Station (2014) (Vudu/HD) $4
Fury (2014) (MA/4K) $6.50
Galaxy Quest (1999) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $6
Game Night (2018) (MA/4K) $5
Gamer (2009) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $5.75
Gangs of New York (2002) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $5
Garfield (2004) (MA/HD) $6.50
Gemini Man (2019) (Vudu/4K) $5.75 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $2.50
Get Him to the Greek (Unrated) (2010) (MA/HD) $3.25
Ghost in the Shell (1995) (Animated) (Vudu/4K) $4
Ghostbusters II (1989) (MA/HD) $3.50
Ghostbusters: Afterlife (2021) (MA/HD) $3.50
Ghosts: Season 1 (2021) (Vudu/HD) $7
Girl with All the Gifts, The (2016) (Vudu/HD) $5
Gladiator (2000) (Vudu/4K) $6.25 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $5
Glass (2019) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $4.50
Glory (1989) (MA/4K) $7.75
Godfather Trilogy (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $14
Godzilla (2014) (MA/4K) $5
Godzilla vs. Kong (2021) (MA/4K) $6
Gold (2016) (Vudu/HD) $1.50
Gone Girl (2014) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $5.75
Good Boys (2019) (MA/HD) $3.25
Good Lie (2014) (MA/HD) $1.50
Good Will Hunting (1997) (Vudu/HD) $5.25
Goosebumps 2 (2018) (MA/4K) $7.75 (MA/HD) $6.50
Gotti (2018) (Vudu/HD) $2
Grand Budapest Hotel (2014) (MA/HD) $4
Grease (1978), 2 (1982), Live! (2016) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $14
Green Book (2018) (MA/4K) $7.50 (MA/HD) $5
Green Knight (2021) (Vudu/4K) $5
Green Lantern: Beware My Power (2022) (MA/HD) $3.75
Green Mile, The (1999) (MA/4K) $6
Greenberg (2010) (MA/HD) $3.25
Greta (2019) (MA/HD) $5.25
Grey, The (2012) (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $2.75
Grown Ups 2 (2013) (MA/HD) $5.50
Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) (MA/4K) $7.25 (iTunes/4K) $5 (MA/HD) $4.50 (GP/HD) $1.75
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) (MA/4K) $6.75 (iTunes/4K) $4.25 (GP/HD) $1.25
Hacksaw Ridge (2016) (Vudu/4K) $4.50 (iTunes/4K) $3.50 (Vudu/HD) $2.25
Half Brothers (2020) (MA/HD) $5.75
Halloween (2018) (MA/4K) $6.25 (MA/HD) $4.25
Halloween Ends (2022) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $4.50
Halloween H20: 20 Years Later (1998), The Curse of Michael Myers (1995), Resurrection (2002) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $10.50
Halloween Kills (2021) (MA/4K) $6.25 (MA/HD) $4.50
Happy Feet (2006) (MA/HD) $4
Happytime Murders (2018) (iTunes/4K) $1.75
Hard Candy (2005) (Vudu/HD) $5
Hardcore Henry (2016) (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $3.50
Hate U Give (2018) (MA/4K) $7.75 (MA/HD) $4.75
Heavy Metal (1981) (MA/4K) $6.25
Hell Fest (2018) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $3.75
Hellboy (2004) (MA/4K) $7.75
Hellboy (2019) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $4.25
Hercules (2014) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $1.50
Hidden Figures (2016) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $1.75
Highlander (1986) (Vudu/4K) $5.50
Hitman's Bodyguard (2017) (Vudu/4K) $6.25 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $4.25
Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard (2021) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $4.75
Hobbs & Shaw (2019) (MA/4K) $5.75 (MA/HD) $3.75
Hocus Pocus (1993) (MA/4K) $6.75 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $4.75 (GP/HD) $2.25
Holiday Inn (1942) (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $3
Home Alone 1-2 (MA/HD) $7.50
Hope Springs (2012) (MA/HD) $2.50
Hostiles (2017) (Vudu/4K) $4.75 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $2.75
Hotel Mumbai (2019) (MA/HD) $5.25
House of 1,000 Corpses (2003), Devil's Rejects (2005), 3 From Hell (2019) (Vudu/HD) $6
House of Gucci (2021) (iTunes/4K) $5
House of the Dragon: Season 1 (2022) (Vudu/4K) $9 (Vudu/HD) $5
House with a Clock in Its Walls (2018) (MA/4K) $6 (MA/HD) $3.75
How to Train Your Dragon Collection 1-3 (MA/HD) $7.50 $4.75 Each
Hulk, The (2003) (iTunes/4K) $6.50
Hunger Games Collection 1-4 (Vudu/HD) $6.50 (iTunes/4K) $12
Hunt for Red October (1990) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $4.75
Hunter Killer (2018) (Vudu/4K) $5.75 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $2.75
Hurt Locker (2008) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.50
Hustle, The (2019) (iTunes/4K) $2
Hustlers (2019) (iTunes/4K) $3
I Feel Pretty (2018) (iTunes/HD) $1
I, Frankenstein (2014) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $1.75
I, Tonya (2017) (MA/HD) $5.75
Identity Thief (2013) (iTunes/HD) Ports to MA $3.75
If I Stay (2014) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $5.75
I'm Not There (2007) (Vudu/HD) $5
Imitation Game, The (2014) (Vudu/HD) $3.25
Immortal Life Of Henrietta Lacks (2017) (iTunes/HD) $3.50
Impossible, The (2013) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $4.75
In the Heights (2021) (MA/4K) $5 (MA/HD) $2.50
Incredible Hulk (2008) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $5
Incredibles (2004) (MA/4K) $7.75 (iTunes/4K) $6.25 (GP/HD) $4.75
Incredibles 2 (2018) (MA/4K) $6.25 (iTunes/4K) $4.50 (GP/HD) $2
Independence Day: Resurgence (2014) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $1.50
Indiana Jones 1-4 (Vudu/4K) $25 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $20
Inevitable Defeat of Mister and Pete (2013) (Vudu/HD) $4.25
Infinite (2021) (Vudu/4K) $5.75 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $5
Inglorious Bastards (2009) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $6
Inside Llewyn Davis (2013) (MA/HD) $6.50
Inside Out (2015) (MA/4K) $5.75 (iTunes/4K) $4.25 (GP/HD) $1.50
Interstellar (2014) (Vudu/4K) $6.25 (iTunes/4K) $5.75 (Vudu/HD) $4
Invisible Man (2020) (MA/4K) $6.25 (MA/HD) $3.75
Invitation, The + Unrated (2022) (MA/HD) $6.25
Iron Man 1-3 (MA/4K) $21 (iTunes/4K) $16 (GP/HD) $7.50
It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World (1963) (Vudu/HD) $6.75
It's a Wonderful Life (1946) (Vudu/4K) $5.25 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $5
Jack Frost (1998) (MA/HD) $5
Jack Reacher Collection 1-2 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $7
Jackass Forever (2022) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $4.50
Jacob's Ladder (1990) (Vudu/HD) $3
Jason Bourne (2016) (MA/4K) $5.50 (iTunes/4K) $3.50 (MA/HD) $3
Jason Statham 6-Movie (Wild Card, War, Bank Job, Transporter 3, Crank, Crank 2) (Vudu/HD) $11.50
Jaws (1975) (MA/4K) $6.50 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $4.75
Jaws (1975) Jaws 2 (1978) Jaws 3 (1983) Jaws: The Revenge (1987) (MA/HD) $15.50
Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back (2001) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $5.50
Jesus Music, The (2021) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $4.50
Jexi (2019) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $3.50
Jigsaw (2017) (Vudu/4K) $5.25 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $2
John Wick Collection 1-3 (Vudu/4K) $16.50 (iTunes/4K) $14.50 (Vudu/HD) $8
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum (2019) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $4
Judy (2019) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $3.75
Juice (1992) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6.50
Jumanji: Next Level (2019) & Welcome to the Jungle (2017) (MA/HD) $7.50
Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle (2017) (MA/4K) $5.75 (MA/HD) $2 (MA/SD) $1
Jungle Book (1967) (MA/HD) $6 (GP/HD) $4
Jungle Cruise (2021) (MA/4K) $6.25 (MA/HD) $3.75 (GP/HD) $3
Jurassic Park (1993) (MA/4K) $5.25 (iTunes/4K) $3.75 (MA/HD) $3
Jurassic World (2015) (MA/4K) $5.25 (iTunes/4K) $3.75 (MA/HD) $2.75
Jurassic World Collection 1-5 (MA/4K) $20 (iTunes/4K) $17.50 (MA/HD) $10.50
Jurassic World Collection 1-6 (MA/4K) $24 (MA/HD) $12
Jurassic World: Dominion + Extended Cut (2022) (MA/4K) $7.25 (MA/HD) $4.25
Justice Society: World War II (2021) (MA/4K) $5.75
Katy Perry: Part of Me (2012) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $4
Keeping Up with the Joneses (2016) (MA/HD) $4.50
Kick-Ass (2010) (Vudu/4K) $5.75 (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $4.50
Kick-Ass 2 (2013) (MA/HD) $5.50 (iTunes/HD) $5
Kid Who Would Be King (2019) (MA/4K) $6 (MA/HD) $4.75
Kid, The (2019) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.25
Kill Bill Collection 1-2 (Vudu/HD) $12
Kill Bill: Vol. 1 (2003) (Vudu/HD) $5.75
Killer Elite (2011) (iTunes/HD) Ports to MA $2.75
Killer Joe (Director's Cut) (2012) (Vudu/HD) $5
Killerman (2019) (Vudu/HD) $2.25 (iTunes/HD) $1.75
Killing Lincoln (2013) (MA/HD) $5.25
Kin (2018) (Vudu/4K) $6 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3
King Kong (2005) (MA/4K) $5.75 (iTunes/4K) $3.75 (MA/HD) $3.50
King of Staten Island (2020) (MA/HD) $4.75
King Richard (2021) (MA/HD) $2
King's Man (2021) (MA/HD) $4.50 (GP/HD) $3.50
Kingsman: The Golden Circle (2017) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $2.75
Kingsman: The Secret Service (2015) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $4.25
Kitchen, The (2019) (MA/HD) $3
Knives Out (2019) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.25
Knocked Up (Unrated) (2007) (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $5.50
Kung Fu Panda 3 (2016) (MA/HD) $2.50
Kung Fu Panda Collection 1-3 (MA/HD) $12.50
L.A. Confidential (1997) (MA/HD) $5.75
Lady and the Tramp (1955) (MA/HD) $5.75 (GP/HD) $3.75
Last Duel, The (2021) (MA/HD) $5.25 (GP/HD) $4
Last Night in Soho (2021) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $5.25
Last Witch Hunter (2015) (Vudu/4K) $3.75 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $1.50
Leap! (2017) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $3.50
Legend of Hercules (2014) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3.25
Legion of Super Heroes (2023) (MA/HD) $6.25
Let Him Go (2020) (MA/HD) $4
Liar Liar (1997) (MA/HD) $3.25
Life of Pi (2012) (MA/HD) $2.50
Lighthouse (2019) (Vudu/HD) $5.25
Lightyear (2022) (MA/4K) $5 (MA/HD) $2.75 (GP/HD) $2
Like a Boss (2020) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $2.25
Lilo & Stitch (2002) & Stitch Has a Glitch (2005) (MA/HD) $11 (GP/HD) $6.50
Limey, The (1999) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.50
Lincoln Lawyer (2011) (Vudu/4K) $5.50 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $4.75
Lion King 2: Simba's Pride (1998) (MA/HD) $6.75 (GP/HD) $5.25
Little (2019) (MA/HD) $4.50
Little Fockers (2010) (MA/HD) $3.25
Little Mermaid (1989) (MA/4K) $7.50 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $5.75 (GP/HD) $3.75
Live Die Repeat: Edge of Tomorrow (2014) (MA/4K) $5
Lock Up (1989) (Vudu/4K) $5
Logan (2017) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $2.75
Logan Lucky (2017) (MA/HD) $1.50 (iTunes/4K) $2.25
London Has Fallen (2016) (iTunes/HD) Ports to MA $2.75
Longest Ride (2015) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $1.50
Looper (2012) (MA/4K) $6 (MA/HD) $3.25
Lord of War (2005) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.50
Lost Boys, The (1987) (MA/4K) $5 (MA/HD) $3.50
Lost City, The (2022) (Vudu/4K) $6.25 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $5.25
Love Actually (2003) (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $5.50
Love, Simon (2018) (MA/HD) $3
Lovebirds (2020) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $5.50
Luca (2021) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $3.75 (GP/HD) $3.25
Lucy (2014) (iTunes/4K) $3.75 (MA/HD) $2
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (2022) (MA/HD) $5.75
Mad Max 2: The Road Warrior (1982) (MA/4K) $5
Mad Max 3: Beyond Thunderdome (1985) (MA/4K) $5
Mad Max Collection 1-4 (Vudu/4K) $20
Magnificent Seven (2016) (Vudu/4K) $6 (Vudu/HD) $2.50
Maleficent (2014) (MA/4K) $6 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $3 (GP/HD) $1.25
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (2019) (MA/4K) $6 (iTunes/4K) $3.75 (GP/HD) $1.50
Mallrats (1995) (MA/HD) $3.25
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (2018) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $1.75
Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh (1977) (MA/HD) $6.25 (GP/HD) $4.50
Many Saints of Newark (2021) (MA/HD) $2.50
Marksman, The (2021) (MA/HD) $5.50
Martian - Extended Cut (2015) (MA/4K) $7.75 (MA/HD) $5.25
Mary Poppins Returns (2018) (MA/4K) $6.75 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $4.75 (GP/HD) $2.25
Matrix (1999), Reloaded (2003), Revolutions (2003), Resurrections (2021) (MA/HD) $7.50
Matrix: Resurrections (2021) (MA/4K) $5 (MA/HD) $2.25
Mechanic: Resurrection (2016) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3
Meet the Parents (2000) (MA/HD) $3.25
Megan Leavey (2017) (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $1.75
Memory (2022) (MA/HD) $4
Men (2022) (Vudu/HD) $4
Men in Black 3 (2012) (MA/HD) $2.50
Men Who Stare at Goats (2009) (Vudu/HD) $5
Menace II Society (Director's Cut) (1993) (MA/HD) $5
Menu (2022) (MA/HD) $5.75 (GP/HD) $4
Midway (2019) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $4
Minions: The Rise of Gru (2022) & Minions (2015) (MA/HD) $8
Minions: The Rise of Gru (2022) (MA/4K) $7.25 (MA/HD) $5.75
Miss Bala (2019) (MA/HD) $3.75
Mission: Impossible Collection 1-6 (Vudu/4K) $25 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $20
Mitchells Vs. The Machines (2021) (MA/HD) $4.75
Moana (2016) (MA/4K) $7 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $4.75 (GP/HD) $2
Money Monster (2016) (MA/HD) $3.25
Monster Hunter (2020) (MA/HD) $4.25
Monsters University (2013) (MA/4K) $6.75 (iTunes/4K) $5.75 (GP/HD) $3.50
Monsters vs. Aliens (2009) (MA/HD) $4.75
Monty Python's The Meaning of Life (1983) (MA/4K) $7.50
Moonfall (2022) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5
Moonrise Kingdom (2012) (MA/HD) $4.25
Morbius (2022) (MA/4K) $5.75 (MA/HD) $3.50 (MA/SD) $2.25
Mortal Engines (2018) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $2.50
Mortal Instruments: City of Bones (2014) (MA/HD) $3.50
Mortal Kombat Legends: Snow Blind (2022) (MA/HD) $6
Mr & Mrs. Smith (2005) (MA/HD) $5.75
Mulan (1998) (MA/4K) $6.75 (iTunes/4K) $5.75 (GP/HD) $3
Mulan (2020) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $4 (GP/HD) $2.25
Mulan 2 (2005) (MA/HD) $3.75 (GP/HD) $2.75
Mule, The (2018) (MA/4K) $5 (MA/HD) $2.50
Mummy (1999), Returns (2001), Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (2008), Scorpion King (2002), Mummy (2017) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $22
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 (2016) (iTunes/HD) Ports to MA $4
My Girl (1991) & 2 (1994) (MA/SD) $7
National Lampoon's Animal House (1978) (MA/4K) $6.25 (MA/HD) $5.50
Nerve (2016) (Vudu/HD) $2.50
New Mutants (2020) (MA/4K) $6.75 (MA/HD) $5.25 (GP/HD) $2.75
News of the World (2020) (MA/4K) $6 (MA/HD) $3.75
Night at the Museum 3-Movie (MA/HD) $14 $6 Each (MA/SD) $9.50
Night House, The (2021) (MA/HD) $5 (GP/HD) $3
Night School (Extended) (2018) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $2.75
Nightmare Alley (2021) (MA/HD) $4.50 (GP/HD) $3.50
No Time to Die (2021) (iTunes/4K) $3.50
Noah (2014) (Vudu/HD) $1.75 (iTunes/HD) $1.50
Nobody (2021) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $5.25
Nope (2022) (MA/4K) $8 (MA/HD) $6
Nope (2022), Get Out (2017) & Us (2019) (MA/HD) $10
Northman (2022) (MA/4K) $7.50 (MA/HD) $5
Now You See Me 1-2 (Vudu/HD) $4 (iTunes/HD) $6.50
Nutcracker and the Four Realms (2018) (MA/4K) $6 (MA/HD) $3 (GP/HD) $2.50
Oblivion (2013) (MA/4K) $7 (iTunes/4K) $3.50 (MA/HD) $2.25
Old (2021) (MA/HD) $4.50
Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood (2019) (MA/4K) $6.75 (MA/HD) $5.25
Only God Forgives (2013) (Vudu/HD) $5
Onward (2020) (MA/4K) $5.50 (MA/HD) $4 (GP/HD) $2.25
Other Woman (2014) (MA/HD) $2.25
Our Kind of Traitor (2016) (Vudu/HD) $3.25
Overboard (2016) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $6
Overlord (2018) (Vudu/4K) $5 (Vudu/HD) $2.75 (iTunes/4K) $3.75
Oz the Great and Powerful (2013) (MA/HD) $2 (GP/HD) $1
Pacific Rim Uprising (2018) (MA/4K) $7.75 (MA/HD) $4.50
Parasite (2019) (MA/HD) $4.75
Passengers (2016) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $3
Patriot Games (1992) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.50
Paw Patrol: The Movie (2021) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $5
Peanuts Movie (2015) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $2.25
Pearl (2022) (Vudu/HD) $6
Penguins of Madagascar (2014) (MA/HD) $1.75
Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters (2013) (MA/HD) $2.25
Perks of Being a Wallflower (2012) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $1.75
Pet Sematary (1989) (iTunes/4K) $4 (Vudu/HD) $3.75
Pet Sematary (2019) (Vudu/4K) $4.50 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $2.50
Pete’s Dragon (2016) (MA/HD) $6.25 (GP/HD) $4.25
Peter Pan (1953) (MA/HD) $6.50 (GP/HD) $5
Peter Pan: Return to Neverland (2002) (MA/HD) $6.25 (GP/HD) $4.75
Peter Rabbit (2018) & 2 (2021) (MA/HD) $10.25 $5.75 Each
Peter Rabbit 2 (2021) (MA/HD) $3.75
Philadelphia (1993) (MA/4K) $7.75
Philomena (2013) (Vudu/HD) $2
Pitch Perfect (2012) (MA/4K) $5.75 (MA/HD) $2.75 (iTunes/4K) $3.75
Pitch Perfect Collection 1-3 (MA/HD) $11.50
Planet of the Apes 1-3 (Newer) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $12
Playing with Fire (2019) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $1.50
Pocahontas (1995) (MA/HD) $6.50 (GP/HD) $5
Pocahontas II: Journey to a New World (1998) (MA/HD) $6 (GP/HD) $3.25
Point Break (2015) (MA/HD) $2
Poltergeist (1982) (MA/4K) $5
Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping (2016) (MA/HD) $3.25
Power Rangers (2017) (Vudu/4K) $5.50 (iTunes/4K) $3.25 (Vudu/HD) $2.75
Predator (1987), 2 (1990), Predators (2009), Predator (2018) $11
Premium Rush (2012) (MA/HD) $3
Prey for the Devil (2022) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6
Pride and Prejudice and Zombies (2016) (MA/HD) $7
Prophecy Collection 1-5 (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $14.50
Protege, The (2021) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.75
Psycho (1960), Rear Window (1954), The Birds (1963), Vertigo (1958) (MA/4K) $18
Pulp Fiction (1994) (Vudu/4K) $5.50 (Vudu/HD) $4.25 (iTunes/HD) $5.25
Punisher, The (2004) (Vudu/4K) $6
Purge, The (2013) (MA/4K) $6.50 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $3
Purge: Anarchy (2014) (MA/4K) $5.75 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $4.75
Race (2016) (iTunes/HD) Ports to MA $2.50
Raid 2 (2014) (MA/HD) $6
Raid: Redemption + Unrated (2012) (MA/HD) $5.50
Railway Man (2013) (Vudu/HD) $5
Ralph Breaks the Internet (2018) (MA/4K) $5.25 (iTunes/4K) $4.50 (GP/HD) $1.50
Rambo Collection 1-5 (Vudu/HD) $15
Rampage (2018) (MA/4K) $5
Ray (2004) (iTunes/HD) Ports to MA $5.25
Raya and the Last Dragon (2021) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $4.75 (GP/HD) $2.75
Rear Window (1954) (MA/4K) $4.75
Red (2010) (Vudu/4K) $6.50
Red 2 (2013) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6.50 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $1.50
Red Rocket (2021) (Vudu/HD) $4.50
Replicas (2019) (Vudu/4K) $5.50
Reservoir Dogs (1992) (Vudu/4K) $5.50 (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $5
Resident Evil: Retribution (2012) (MA/HD) $2.25
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter (2017) (MA/4K) $7.75 (MA/HD) $3.25
Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City (2021) (MA/4K) $7.50 (MA/HD) $4.50
Respect (2021) (iTunes/4K) $4.25
Revenant, The (2015) (MA/4K) $5.25 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $3.25
Rhythm Section (2020) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $4.25
Richie Rich (1994) (MA/HD) $5
Riddick - Unrated Director's Cut (2013) (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $4
Riddick Collection 1-3 (Unrated) (MA/HD) $14
Ride Along 1-2 (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $5 $2.75 Each
Rio (2011) (MA/HD) $5.50
Rise of the Guardians (2012) (MA/HD) $3.25
Rise of the Planet of the Apes (2010) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $5.75
Robin Hood (2010) (MA/4K) $6.50
Robin Hood (2018) (Vudu/4K) $5 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3.25
RoboCop (1987) (Vudu/HD) $7.50
RoboCop (2014) (Vudu/HD) $2
Rocketman (2019) (Vudu/4K) $5 (iTunes/4K) $2.50 (Vudu/HD) $2.25
Rogue (2020) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $3.50
Roman J. Israel, Esq. (2017) (MA/HD) $3.50
Ron's Gone Wrong (2021) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $5.25 (GP/HD) $3.50
Rough Night (2017) (MA/HD) $4.50
Rumble (2022) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $6
Running Man, The (1987) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6.25
Rush (2013) (MA/HD) $2.75 (iTunes/HD) $3.25
Safe House (2012) (MA/HD) $4 (iTunes/HD) $2.50
Sandlot, The (1993) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $5
Saturday Night Fever (1977) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6.25
Sausage Party (2016) (MA/HD) $4.25
Saving Private Ryan (1998) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6.50
Saw (2004) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.50
Saw Collection 1-7 (Vudu/HD) $10
Scarface (1983) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $5.25
Scream (1996) (Vudu/4K) $6 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3.75
Scream 5 (2022) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $4.50
Scream Collection 1-3 (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $13.50
Secret Headquarters (2022) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/4K) $5.75
Secret in Their Eyes (2015) (MA/HD) (iTunes/HD) $2.25
Selma (2015) (Vudu/HD) $3 (iTunes/HD) $2.25
Shang-Chi (2021) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $5 (GP/HD) $3.25
Shark Tale (2004) (MA/HD) $3.75
Shaun of the Dead (2004), Hot Fuzz (2007), World's End (2013) (MA/HD) $10
Shawshank Redemption (1994) (MA/4K) $5
Sherlock Gnomes (2018) (Vudu/HD) $2.75 (iTunes/4K) $2.25
Shrek (2001), Madagascar (2005), Home (2015), Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron (2003), How to Train Your Dragon (2010), Croods (2013), Kung Fu Panda (2008), Boss Baby (2017), Abominable (2019), Trolls (2016) (MA/HD) $16
Sicario: Day of the Soldado (2018) (MA/4K) $7.75 (MA/HD) $3.75
Silent Night, Deadly Night: 3-Film Collection (1989-1991) (Vudu/HD) $6
Silver Linings Playbook (2012) (Vudu/HD) $2
Sing 2 (2021) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $3.75
Singin' in the Rain (1952) (MA/4K) $6.50
Sixteen Candles (1984) (iTunes/HD) Ports to MA $4.25
Skyscraper (2018) (MA/4K) $5.50 (MA/HD) $1.75
Slender Man (2018) (MA/HD) $5.25
Smile (2022) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $6.50
Smokin' Aces (2007) (MA/4K) $6.25 (iTunes/HD) $5.75
Smurfs 2 (2013) (MA/HD) $3.25
Snake Eyes (2021) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $4.50
Snow White and the Huntsman (Extended) (2012) (iTunes/4K) $3.50 (MA/HD) $2.50
Snowman (2017) (MA/HD) $2
Sonic the Hedgehog (2020) (Vudu/4K) $6.25 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $4.25
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (2022) (Vudu/4K) $6.50 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $4.75
Soul (2020) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $3.75 (GP/HD) $2.25
Source Code (2011) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.50
Southpaw (2015) (Vudu/HD) $4.25
Southside With You (2016) (Vudu/HD) $3.50
Space Jam (1996) (MA/4K) $5
Space Jam: A New Legacy (2021) (MA/4K) $5
Sparkle (2012) (MA/HD) $3.50 (MA/SD) $2.25
Speed (1994) (MA/4K) $5.25
Spider-Man Collection 1-8 (MA/HD) $26
Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) (MA/4K) $6.75 (MA/HD) $4
Spiral (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.50
Spirit Untamed: The Movie (2021) (MA/HD) $4.25
Split (2017) (MA/4K) $6.75 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $2.75
SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water (2015) (Vudu/HD) $4.75 (iTunes/HD) $3.50
Spontaneous (2020) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $5
Spotlight (2015) (MA/HD) $5 (iTunes/HD) $3
Spy Who Dumped Me (2018) (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $4.25
Stand Up Guys (2012) (Vudu/HD) $2.75
Star Trek (2009) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $7
Star Trek 1-3 (Vudu/4K) $18.75 (Vudu/HD) $9.50 (iTunes/4K) $13.50
Star Trek Into Darkness (2013) (Vudu/HD) $1.75 (iTunes/4K) $3.25
Star, The (2017) (MA/HD) $2.50
Step Brothers + Unrated (2008) (MA/HD) $6.75
Stillwater (2021) (MA/HD) $5
Strange World (2022) (MA/HD) $5 (GP/HD) $3.75
Strangers: Prey at Night (2018) (MA/HD) $3.50
Studio 666 (2022) (MA/HD) $6.50
Suicide Squad, The (2021) (MA/4K) $5
Sully (2016) (MA/4K) $5
Sum of All Fears, The (2002) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.75
Super Buddies (2013) (MA/HD) $5.75 (GP/HD) $4
Survive the Night (2020) (Vudu/4K) $4 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3
SW: A New Hope (1977) (MA/4K) $7.25 (iTunes/4K) $6.50 (GP/HD) $3.50
SW: Attack of the Clones (2002) (GP/HD) Ports to MA $6.50
SW: Empire Strikes Back (1980) (MA/4K) $7.25 (iTunes/4K) $6.75 (GP/HD) $3.50
SW: Force Awakens (2015) (MA/4K) $5.50 (iTunes/4K) $3.75 (GP/HD) $1.50
SW: Last Jedi (2017) (MA/4K) $6 (iTunes/4K) $4 (GP/HD) $1.25
SW: Phantom Menace (1999) (MA/4K) $7.50 (iTunes/4K) $6.50 (GP/HD) $3.50
SW: Return of the Jedi (1983) (MA/4K) $7.50 (iTunes/4K) $6.75 (GP/HD) $3.50
SW: Revenge of the Sith (2005) (MA/4K) $7.50 (iTunes/4K) $6.75 (GP/HD) $3.50
SW: Rise of Skywalker (2019) (MA/4K) $6.25 (iTunes/4K) $5 (GP/HD) $2.50
SW: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016) (MA/4K) $6.75 (iTunes/4K) $4 (GP/HD) $1.50
SW: Solo: A Star Wars Story (2018) (MA/4K) $7.25 (iTunes/4K) $5.25 (GP/HD) $3.25
Taken (2009), 2 (2012), 3 (2015) (MA/HD) $9
Ten Commandments (1956) (Vudu/4K) $6 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $5.75
Terminator (1984) (Vudu/HD) $7
Terminator 2: Judgment Day (1991) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $4.25
Terminator: Dark Fate (2019) (Vudu/4K) $6.75 (Vudu/HD) $3 (iTunes/4K) $2.50
Think Like a Man (2012) & Two (2014) (MA/HD) $9
This Means War (2012) (MA/HD) $4
Thor: Love and Thunder (2022) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $3.50 (GP/HD) $2.25
Thor: Ragnarok (2017) (MA/4K) $7.50 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $3.50 (GP/HD) $1.75
Thor: The Dark World (2013) (MA/4K) $7 (iTunes/4K) $4.75 (GP/HD) $2.25
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (2017) (MA/HD) $3.50
Till (2022) (iTunes/4K) $6
Titans: Season 2 (2020) (Vudu/HD) $6.25
To Kill a Mockingbird (1962) (MA/4K) $6.25 (iTunes/HD) $4.50
Top Gun: Maverick (2022) (Vudu/4K) $6.50 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $6
Toy Story 1-4 (MA/4K) $23 (iTunes/4K) $21 (GP/HD) $11.50
Traffic (2000) (iTunes/HD) Ports to MA $5.75
Training Day (2001) (MA/4K) $7
Trainwreck (2015) (iTunes/HD) Ports to MA $1.50
Transformers 1-5 (Vudu/4K) $30 (Vudu/HD) $23
Trick 'r Treat (2009) (MA/HD) $5
Trolls Collection 1-2 (MA/HD) $6.50
Tucker: The Man and His Dream (1988) (Vudu/HD) $2.75
Turbo (2013) (MA/HD) $2.25 (iTunes/SD) $1.25
Turning Red (2022) (MA/4K) $6.50 (MA/HD) $4.25 (GP/HD) $3
Umma (2022) (MA/HD) $3.75
Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent (2022) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6
Unbreakable (2000) (MA/4K) $6 (GP/HD) $3.75
Uncharted (2022) (MA/4K) $5.75 (MA/HD) $3.75
Uncle Drew (2018) (Vudu/4K) $6.25 (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $3
Uncut Gems (2019) (Vudu/HD) $4.25
Under the Skin (2014) (Vudu/HD) $5.25
Underwater (2020) (MA/HD) $5.25
Underworld: Awakening (2012) (MA/HD) $1.75
Underworld: Blood Wars (2016) (MA/4K) $6 (MA/HD) $2.25
Unhinged (2020) (Vudu/HD) $4
Unholy, The (2021) (MA/HD) $6.50
Universal Soldier (1992) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $6.25
Untouchables, The (1987) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $5.75
Up (2009) (iTunes/4K) $7.50 (MA/HD) $6.75 (GP/HD) $5
Us (2019) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $5.25
Usual Suspects, The (1995) (Vudu/HD) $6.25
Vacation (2015) (MA/HD) $2
Van Helsing (2004) (MA/4K) $6 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $4.75
Venom (2005) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $4.75
Venom (2018) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $3.50
Venom: Let There Be Carnage (2021) (MA/4K) $7.25 (MA/HD) $3.50
Vertigo (1958) (MA/HD) $5
Vice (2018) 'Christian Bale' (MA/HD) $4.25
Violent Night (2022) (MA/HD) $7
Vivo (2021) (MA/HD) $4
W. (2008) (Vudu/HD) $5
Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit (2005) (MA/HD) $6.75
War for the Planet of the Apes (2017) (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $3
War of the Worlds (1953) (Vudu/4K) (iTunes/4K) $7
Warcraft (2016) (MA/4K) $5 (iTunes/4K) (MA/HD) $2.25
Warriors, The (1979) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $5.75
Waterworld (1995) (MA/4K) $6.75 (MA/HD) $6
Way Back, The (2020) (MA/HD) $2.50
West Side Story (2021) (MA/4K) $6 (MA/HD) (GP/HD) $2.75
Where the Crawdads Sing (2022) (MA/HD) $4.75
Where'd You Go Bernadette (2019) (MA/HD) $5.50
White House Down (2013) (MA/HD) $3.50
Willow (1988) (MA/HD) $6.75 (GP/HD) $4.50
Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory (1971) (MA/4K) $5.75
Wind River (2017) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $5
Wolf Man (1941) (MA/4K) $6.50
Wolf of Wall Street (2013) (Vudu/4K) $6 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3.50
Wolverine (Unrated) (2013) (MA/HD) $3.75
Woman King (2022) (MA/4K) $7 (MA/HD) $5.75
Wonder (2017) (Vudu/4K) $5.75 (iTunes/4K) (Vudu/HD) $3.25
Wonder Park (2019) (Vudu/HD) $3 (iTunes/4K) $2.25
Wonder Woman 1984 (2020) (MA/4K) $5
Wrath of Man (2021) (Vudu/HD) $3
X (2022) (Vudu/HD) $7
X-Men (2000), X2 (2003), The Last Stand (2006) (MA/HD) $14.50
X-Men: Dark Phoenix (2019) (MA/HD) $6.25
X-Men: First Class (2010), Days of Future Past (2004), Apocalypse (2014) (MA/HD) $11
Yesterday (2019) (MA/HD) $4.50
Young Sherlock Holmes (1985) (Vudu/HD) (iTunes/HD) $6
Youth in Revolt (2009) (Vudu/HD) $5
Zathura (2005) (MA/HD) $6.75
Zero Dark Thirty (2012) (MA/4K) $7.75 (MA/HD) $3
Zombieland: Double Tap (2019) (MA/HD) $4.75
Zootopia (2016) (MA/4K) $7.50 (iTunes/4K) $5.25 (MA/HD) $4.75 (GP/HD) $3.50

So for some background info, I’m a sophomore in high school and have playing for 6ish years. In late 2021 I switched from a 12C to a 6 1/2AL (still playing on a small bore student model) and in spring of 2022 I got a Conn 88HNV large bore with a 5G mouthpiece. I’m pretty serious about playing and for quite a few years my goal has been to major in music performance and eventually win a major orchestra audition. Because of that I’ve been doing a lot of practicing and I’ve improved a lot in a short period of time. I went from being 3rd chair out of 5 in a freshman band (though keep in mind I got my braces off right before that audition and then totally bombed it lol) to getting into the most competitive honor band in my region of the US and being offered a contract with a world class drum corps.
Whenever I play in pep band I use my old student model (I’m definitely not going to bring my nice expensive trombone into the bleachers and let a lyre scratch it up) with a 6 1/2AL because that’s the biggest small shank mouthpiece I own. When I have to go back to playing on the 6 1/2AL for pep band the mouthpiece feels much too small. I don’t have as much control as I’d like, my tone is worse, notes at the far end of my range are harder to hit. Y’know, all the things that happen when you have to go back to a beginner mouthpiece. The problem is that now, my 5G feels like that too. It started in August and has felt like that on and off ever since. Now, it feels like that all the time. It’s frustrating. I just feel like I don’t have enough space in my mouthpiece to play like I want. I think that having something bigger could solve some of the frustrations I have and improve my playing.
So, I am the problem? Is it something wrong with my playing? Should I look into getting a different mouthpiece? What mouthpieces do people look at if they want something bigger than a 5G? Any recommendations?
I know some of these questions can be hard to answer without hearing my playing but I’d greatly appreciate any advice anyways.
Also, I do plan to ask my lesson teacher these questions too but I’d like to be able to have some more information before I talk to him about it, which is part of the purpose of this post.

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I'm looking for a partner in crime to fall in love with (like most of the people on reddit). Listen, whether or not I mean literal crime is up to the reader (if you're a cop who's reading this...it's a joke 😎). I want someone who's into phone calls and calling to say goodnight. All thay mush mush stuff, ya know?
I feel like I'm getting old. I'm constantly tired. Caffeine makes me tired...but then if I drink caffeine past 6, I (sometimes) can't sleep! Make it make sense. So, I'm definitely not the type to staying up real late and hitting up the bars and coming home at 2am. I'm the type who will stay up until 2am scrolling through reddit or binge watching a TV show. I guess you could day that I am more on the introverted type. I like spending more one on one time with someone (or in a small group). I can do a day inside, but I also LOVE planned or spontaneous adventures! Sometimes, spontaneous is the best. In really like men with lots of tattoos but it isn’t a requirement.
Date ideas:

1. Cooking date
2. Hike to a pretty waterfall and having a picnic
3. Sneaking into a zoo and releasing all of the animals
4. Chili's
5. Cuddle on your couch and watch a movie
6. Take over Russia (in the SPRING)
7. Time traveling and solving the world's problems
8. One of those paint and drink places
9. Go to a mall and get a pretzel and lemonade, and people watch

Tez2, a reputable Rockstar insider has suggested on the GTA Forums that GTA 6 is likely to be released this year with a tentative release date of 2024.
According to my own reports which date back to June 2021, this seems to be the case. My sources have said that Grand Theft Auto 6 has been aiming for a 2024 release date for some time, but speculation and past reveal/release schedules of the likes of GTA 5 and Red Dead Redemption 2 suggest the game will be delayed until 2025.
If I were to guess – I believe the game would release in the holiday of 2025 instead of the spring.
As for when the announcement is made is unclear, but typically Rockstar Games likes to announce its big reveals on its own. So to set expectations, I wouldn’t necessarily expect the game to be announced at E3. Instead, I expect some form of reveal trailer in Q4 2023 to coincide with past reveals.
According to my own sources, one of the major reasons for such a long-winded “delay” is that GTA 6 will release on current-generation consoles only. With the tentative 2024 date being planned as far back as 2021, it was a means of ensuring that GTA 6 would have a sufficient console market to release on.
In late 2022, Rockstar Games had a security breach that resulted in over 70 videos on GTA 6 gameplay surfacing online. In its subsequent earnings call, Take-Two Interactive addressed investors to state that the leak was unfortunate, but they believe it had no impact on development.
“There’s no evidence that any material assets were taken, which is a good thing, and certainly the leak won’t have any influence on development or anything of the sort, but it is terribly disappointing and causes us to be ever more vigilant on matters relating to cybersecurity”, it was said.
As for GTA 6, for now, we’ll need to continue sitting tight and see what gets announced in the hopefully near future.
When do you think GTA 6 will be announced?
For more from Insider Gaming, check out details on THE FINALS BETA that starts today.
Related

Looking for early info on this year’s Australian Cup? The tipsters at Neds have put together
everything you need to know before this year’s race.
Run over 2,000 meters each March at Flemington Racecourse, the Australian Cup is a Group 1
classic run and won since 1863.
Live Here: https://liveesports.online/australian-cup/
It was previously held on ‘Super Saturday’ at headquarters alongside the Group 1 Newmarket
Handicap (1200m) but was moved to its own feature race meeting later in the month ahead of
the 2023 edition.
The Group 2 Peter Young Stakes (1800m) held earlier during the Melbourne Autumn Racing
Carnival is the key lead-up into the Australian Cup and Fiorente (2014) was the last galloper to
complete the double.
The weight-for-age feature currently offers $3 million in prize money after having its stakes
increased for 2023, and many turf greats have taken out the event including in recent times
Northerly (2001, 2003) and current race record holder Makybe Diva (2005) best known for her
historic Melbourne Cup three-peat.
The late, great ‘Cups’ King’ Bart Cummings famously won the Australian Cup on 13 occasions
with his last success being in 2008 with Sirmione.
In 2022 Duais won the Australian Cup before a next-up victory in Sydney’s Group 1 Tancred
Stakes (2400m), while the form was also franked by the runner-up Think It Over who won the
Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) at Randwick during April’s The Championships.
TAB Australian Cup Day 2023 Flemington
Saturday 25 March 2023
Flemington Racecourse
On its new home on the last Saturday in March TAB Australian Cup Day will be a pivotal day on
the racing calendar and a fitting finale to the Flemington Racing Spectacular.
Another feature race day and a spectacular finale
On its new home on the last Saturday in March TAB Australian Cup Day will be a pivotal day on
the racing calendar and a fitting finale to the Flemington Racing Spectacular.
The $3 million Group 1 TAB Australian Cup (2000m) counts many of the greats of the Australian
turf on its honour roll - legends such as Dulcify Bonecrusher Vo Rogue Better Loosen Up Let's
Elope Saintly Octagonal Northerly Lonhro Makybe Diva and Zipping. Last year's edition was
taken out by Duais.
Also featuring is the Listed Roy Higgins (2600m) with a new prizemoney purse of $500000 and
an eagerly sought-after Golden Ticket for the winner into the 2023 Lexus Melbourne Cup.
And of course the last Saturday in March presents the last chance to enjoy the thrills and tastes
of the Flemington Fareground! Look out for the $5 fries and $5 large beef pies available from
food outlets across the course.
Kick on after the last race as Paris Lawrence will be on the decks to keep the party going for our
'Front Lawn Party Hour'.
Group 1 TAB Australian Cup (2000m)
Atrium Tiered
Dining Room
General Admission
Mates Rates
Members Enclosure Daily Ticket
Picnic Pod
Straight Six

I'm looking for a partner in crime to fall in love with (like most of the people on reddit). Listen, whether or not I mean literal crime is up to the reader (if you're a cop who's reading this...it's a joke 😎). I want someone who's into phone calls and calling to say goodnight. All thay mush mush stuff, ya know?
I feel like I'm getting old. I'm constantly tired. Caffeine makes me tired...but then if I drink caffeine past 6, I (sometimes) can't sleep! Make it make sense. So, I'm definitely not the type to staying up real late and hitting up the bars and coming home at 2am. I'm the type who will stay up until 2am scrolling through reddit or binge watching a TV show. I guess you could day that I am more on the introverted type. I like spending more one on one time with someone (or in a small group). I can do a day inside, but I also LOVE planned or spontaneous adventures! Sometimes, spontaneous is the best. In really like men with lots of tattoos but it isn’t a requirement.
Date ideas:

1. Cooking date
2. Hike to a pretty waterfall and having a picnic
3. Sneaking into a zoo and releasing all of the animals
4. Chili's
5. Cuddle on your couch and watch a movie
6. Take over Russia (in the SPRING)
7. Time traveling and solving the world's problems
8. One of those paint and drink places
9. Go to a mall and get a pretzel and lemonade, and people watch

Hi. My name is Friendly Alien, and this was a case covered by a Field Analyst and friend of the North Star Project. I have no idea why AKST or any officials have not updated the information, as this was discovered in August last year... But here's an overview of what we've found and what our unnamed Field Analyst wrote while he was out there:

Crow Pass, Missing Person: Case Report

-FA, "Maketa". N.S.P. (North Star Project)
Background:
A 74-year-old Gary Fisk, Departed on the Crows' pass hike from Girdwood to Eagle river on September 21st, 2021. After a bout of Adverse weather, including snow and high winds, Fisk was never heard from again. Aircraft and mountain rescue crews were unable to locate Fisk or recover a Cadaver. This area is known for avalanches and Blizzards, as are most of the mountains surrounding the Mat-Su Valley during the winter and spring months.
Running theory:
AKST and Rescue crews were unable to locate Mr. Fisk, finding no signs and publishing minimum circumstances regarding his disappearance. However, heavy snowfall likely played a significant role. It was likely causing him to become lost or seek shelter in one of the many Abandoned mines in the area. Trained rescue crews often do not enter Dilapidated mines due to the risk of Poisonous gas, Cave-ins, and/or improperly disposed of ordinances. I and a local guide have Formed the hypothesis that Fisk departed Girdwood, and traveled an Undetermined distance. (will be estimated through interview with AKST) Mr. Fisk was unable to travel further or backtrack due to increasing weather severity, seeking shelter inside the lowest point near his position. Some period of time had passed and an avalanche/or snow had buried the trail or if sheltering in a mine entrance bracing may have failed to cause a cave-in. It is estimated Fisk is likely Deceased due to Exposure and/or starvation
Planned Field Investigation:
Beginning in August 2022, the Investigation will be conducted by Bridger Maketa, Assisted in the field by Nathaniel Caole. Time of departure/ weather conditions and Geological activity will be determined through interview With AKST, NOAA and or Family Members, then be cross-referenced to determine distance traveled. All Underground cavities in the area will be searched, for signs of Fisk, snow coverage, and/or Recent collapse within the past 2 years. If Mr Fisk is Located and ID’d, measurements will be taken of Radiation, gas levels, signs of injury and location. Outcome to be forwarded to family, And AKST.
Screenshot Of Location Of Discovery And Paths.
Investigation outcome:
Aug 18th 2022: our party Departed Girdwood at 12pm, traveling up the lower and upper trails. Multiple slide locations into thick unsearchable foliage were spotted, as well as one of two accessible mine entrances due to time constraints. There were many places to fall including a large canyon on the southern incline towards the summit, which all locations prior to the summit would make recovery unlikely/implausible. We also encountered record rainfall combined with 60mph+ as we crossed by Beaver Glacier. After the descent time had degraded the trail causing us to lose it temporarily. We decided to make camp at the bottom of the valley behind the bluff for wind protection.
Aug 19th 2022: upon departure, we were unable to progress on the lower valley, upon backtracking to enter the trail, we spotted an aluminum rod deep in the brush, No other items seen. We Completed the first river crossing with ease, with the water just above ankles. And continued down trail, checking low areas where a lost person would be attracted towards. A footbridge over a canyon had damaged railing, if someone fell they would be likely non-recoverable, another location shorty after involved a slippery ledge over the canyon. Upon entering the bushwhacking section of the trail we were hindered by a cow and calf (female Moose with calf), refusing to exit the trail in front of us while traveling through tall grass and thick foliage. In 14 miles with an additional 4 in detours we arrived upon the bank of Eagle River. We had immediately noticed water levels were far higher than typical. Much of the trail to the fjord sight was immersed in ice cold glacial water causing us to detour along the higher sections of floodplain. Upon arrival to the fjord sight, we concluded Eagle River was in-cross able. Our choice was either 15 miles of steep muddy slopes followed by a treacherous mountain climb, or to attempt to travel south to cross the headwaters of the lake. Upon choosing to travel the shorter path, the trail dissapeared replaced by rough terrain and thick foliage. We continued for two miles until we were half way around the lake. Upon then we found a piece of Grey pants on the ground, we were surprised someone had been here before us, however 50 feet the terrain was completely impassible, down to the left in an indent, our search took a eventful and solemn turn, as we spotted a bright yellow backpack. A floral water bottle was attached outside, while a lighter lay upon the ground 3 feet away. We searched the bag for ID, eventually identifying it as belonging to Gary Fisk. Being careful to not disturb evidence we left the bag and all other items in position. Noticeably the backpack had a foam pad yet no sleeping bag, a bear canister (food storage canister) had teeth marks upon it, however the yellow bag had not been opened upon discovery. We determined to visually search for a few more minutes, finding a turned over tree with a can of bear spray, which had a bite taken out of it. 20 ft left from the pant leg.
Upon departure we spotted tattered red fabric 50 feet above us on the canyon to our western side.
​
Photograph Of The Discover Of Fisks' ID
Departure:
The weather quickly declined, resulting in many slips and falls upon our return. Water began flooding the valley, turning most trail sections into flowing streams and deep mud pits. We were determined to return to the summit cabin before dark, due to the danger of climbing at night, and our camping gea fire starting kits becoming waterlogged. We kept moving taking minimum breaks to stave off hypothermia making it 10 miles uphill before the first river crossing. Upon a short discussing we knew our only way was across, as the record flood would continue for weeks. The river had risen to waist height, moving fast enough to send boulders crashing downstream. We found a fjord sight and barely crossed, due to a single trekking pole I became completely wet, and hypothermia quickly set in causing my legs to tense and losing my ability to move.
Aug 20th 2022: We made an emergency camp, utilizing a bivy bag and wet gear. Mr Caole completed the last 2 miles to the cabin to call for help. I was inside the bivy bag unable to move for 12 hours until ANG Hilo arrived, being airlifted to Providence Anchorage with severe hypothermia.
August 21st 2022: AKST and S&R crews traveled to the sight but were unable to find any remains or the clothing we found. Only recovering the backpack and bearspray
Deduction:
The location of Gary Fisk’s campsite being Miles ahead of where S&R crews suspected. From the evidence found the story is assumed to be, Gary departed on September 21st 2021, traveled down to the rear of the summit as weather degraded, continuing downhill to avoid deep snow.
Upon reaching the river crossing a day behind in progress, and wet from slush and snow, Gary traveled quicker and lost the trail to the fjord sight and continued to travel south. The terrain was more and more difficult to pass before finally reaching the dead end beside the lake. Garry was fully hypothermic and had no choice but to make camp and attempt to start a fire, however, as evident from the lighter and attempted fire, he was unsuccessful due to either the loss of dexterity, or the wetness of the area. It is unknown what happened after this, though it is possible that after hypothermia led to the removal of his clothes. Upon hearing the snowmachines used by S&R crews on the eastern lake side. Gary either A: climbed up the Cliff to signal for help, Following death by exposure. Or B: gary attempted to swim across the lake, the 38 degree water immediately causing Cardiac arrest.
Second theory of the nature of presumed death is, Gary, being stalked by a bear and mauled/Buried. This theory is supported by the numerous black and brown bear population in the area, His Bear mace being located 50 feet away from the campsite, with multiple punctures to the can, indicative of large teeth. As well as the torn clothes. (as opposed to neatly removed which is more typical to hypothermia)
However It is more likely a bear was attracted to the Capsacin and removed it from the bag to chew on, and there would have been one or more cadaver remnants from a bear mauling leaving the lack of a body improbable.
​
NOTE: Please know that we take this seriously and do not mean any of this information to be satire.
If you have any information to share or any questions please DM this account, or comment.

Hi. My name is Friendly Alien, and this was a case covered by a Field Analyst and friend of the North Star Project. I have no idea why AKST or any officials have not updated the information, as this was discovered in August last year... But here's an overview of what we've found and what our unnamed Field Analyst wrote while he was out there:

Crow Pass, Missing Person: Case Report

-FA, "Maketa". N.S.P. (North Star Project)
Background:
A 74-year-old Gary Fisk, Departed on the Crows' pass hike from Girdwood to Eagle river on September 21st, 2021. After a bout of Adverse weather, including snow and high winds, Fisk was never heard from again. Aircraft and mountain rescue crews were unable to locate Fisk or recover a Cadaver. This area is known for avalanches and Blizzards, as are most of the mountains surrounding the Mat-Su Valley during the winter and spring months.
Running theory:
AKST and Rescue crews were unable to locate Mr. Fisk, finding no signs and publishing minimum circumstances regarding his disappearance. However, heavy snowfall likely played a significant role. It was likely causing him to become lost or seek shelter in one of the many Abandoned mines in the area. Trained rescue crews often do not enter Dilapidated mines due to the risk of Poisonous gas, Cave-ins, and/or improperly disposed of ordinances. I and a local guide have Formed the hypothesis that Fisk departed Girdwood, and traveled an Undetermined distance. (will be estimated through interview with AKST) Mr. Fisk was unable to travel further or backtrack due to increasing weather severity, seeking shelter inside the lowest point near his position. Some period of time had passed and an avalanche/or snow had buried the trail or if sheltering in a mine entrance bracing may have failed to cause a cave-in. It is estimated Fisk is likely Deceased due to Exposure and/or starvation
Planned Field Investigation:
Beginning in August 2022, the Investigation will be conducted by Bridger Maketa, Assisted in the field by Nathaniel Caole. Time of departure/ weather conditions and Geological activity will be determined through interviews With AKST, NOAA, and/or Family Members, then be cross-referenced to determine the distance traveled. All Underground cavities in the area will be searched, for signs of Fisk, snow coverage, and/or Recent collapse within the past 2 years. If Mr. Fisk is Located and ID’d, measurements will be taken of Radiation, gas levels, signs of injury, and location. The outcome is to be forwarded to the family, And AKST.
Screenshot Of Location Of Discovery And Paths.
Investigation outcome:
Aug 18th, 2022: our party Departed Girdwood at 12 pm, traveling up the lower and upper trails. Multiple slide locations into thick unsearchable foliage were spotted, as well as one of two accessible mine entrances due to time constraints. There were many places to fall including a large canyon on the southern incline towards the summit, which all locations prior to the summit would make recovery unlikely/implausible. We also encountered record rainfall combined with 60mph+ as we crossed Beaver Glacier. After the descent time had degraded the trail causing us to lose it temporarily. We decided to make camp at the bottom of the valley behind the bluff for wind protection.
Aug 19th, 2022: upon departure, we were unable to progress on the lower valley, upon backtracking to enter the trail, we spotted an aluminum rod deep in the brush, No other items were seen. We Completed the first river crossing with ease, with the water just above our ankles. And continued down the trail, checking low areas where a lost person would be attracted towards. A footbridge over a canyon had damaged railing, if someone fell they would be likely non-recoverable, another location shortly after involved a slippery ledge over the canyon. Upon entering the bushwhacking section of the trail we were hindered by a cow and calf (female Moose with calf), refusing to exit the trail in front of us while traveling through tall grass and thick foliage. In 14 miles with an additional 4 in detours, we arrived upon the bank of Eagle River. We immediately noticed water levels were far higher than typical. Much of the trail to the fjord sight was immersed in ice-cold glacial water causing us to detour along the higher sections of the floodplain. Upon arrival at the fjord sight, we concluded Eagle River was uncrossable. Our choice was either 15 miles of steep muddy slopes followed by a treacherous mountain climb or to attempt to travel south to cross the headwaters of the lake. Upon choosing to travel the shorter path, the trail disappeared replaced by rough terrain and thick foliage. We continued for two miles until we were halfway around the lake. Upon then we found a piece of Grey pants on the ground, we were surprised someone had been there before us, however, 50 feet the terrain was completely impassible, down to the left in an indent, our search took an eventful turn, as we spotted a bright yellow backpack. A floral water bottle was attached outside, while a lighter lay on the ground 3 feet away. We searched the bag for ID, eventually identifying it as belonging to Gary Fisk. Being careful to not disturb evidence we left the bag and all other items in position. Noticeably the backpack had a foam pad yet no sleeping bag, and a bear canister (food storage canister) had teeth marks upon it, however, the yellow bag had not been opened upon discovery. We determined to visually search for a few more minutes, finding a turned-over tree with a can of bear spray, which had a bite taken out of it. 20 ft left from the pant leg.
Upon departure, we spotted tattered red fabric 50 feet above us on the canyon to our western side.
Photograph Of The Discovery Of Fisks' ID
Departure:
The weather quickly declined, resulting in many slips and falls upon our return. Water began flooding the valley, turning most trail sections into flowing streams and deep mud pits. We were determined to return to the summit cabin before dark, due to the danger of climbing at night, and our camping geafire-starting kits becoming waterlogged. We kept moving taking minimum breaks to stave off hypothermia making it 10 miles uphill before the first river crossing. Upon a short discussion, we knew our only way was across, as the record flood would continue for weeks. The river had risen to waist height, moving fast enough to send boulders crashing downstream. We found a fjord sight and barely crossed, due to a single trekking pole I became completely wet, and hypothermia quickly set in causing my legs to tense and losing my ability to move.
Aug 20th, 2022: We made an emergency camp, utilizing a bivy bag and wet gear. Mr Caole completed the last 2 miles to the cabin to call for help. I was inside the bivy bag unable to move for 12 hours until ANG Hilo arrived, being airlifted to Providence Anchorage with severe hypothermia.
August 21st, 2022: AKST and S&R crews traveled to the sight but were unable to find any remains or the clothing we found. Only recovering the backpack and bear spray
Deduction:
The location of Gary Fisk’s campsite is Miles ahead of where S&R crews suspected. From the evidence found the story is assumed to be, Gary departed on September 21st, 2021, and traveled down to the rear of the summit as the weather degraded, continuing downhill to avoid deep snow.
Upon reaching the river crossing a day behind in progress, and wet from slush and snow, Gary traveled quicker and lost the trail to the fjord sight and continued to travel south. The terrain was more and more difficult to pass before finally reaching the dead end beside the lake. Garry was fully hypothermic and had no choice but to make camp and attempt to start a fire, however, as evident from the lighter and attempted fire, he was unsuccessful due to either the loss of dexterity or the wetness of the area. It is unknown what happened after this, though it is possible that hypothermia led to the removal of his clothes. Upon hearing about the snowmachines used by S&R crews on the eastern lakeside. Gary either A: climbed up the Cliff to signal for help, Following death by exposure. Or B: Gary attempted to swim across the lake, and the 38-degree water immediately caused Cardiac arrest.
A second theory of the nature of presumed death is, Gary, being stalked by a bear and mauled/Buried. This theory is supported by the numerous black and brown bear populations in the nearby area, his Bear mace being located 50 feet away from the campsite, with multiple punctures to the can, indicative of large teeth. As well as the torn clothes. (as opposed to neatly removed which is more typical of hypothermia)
However, It is more likely a bear was attracted to the Capsacin and removed it from the bag to chew on, and there would have been one or more cadaver remnants from a bear mauling leaving the lack of a body improbable.
​
NOTE: Please know that we take this seriously and do not mean any of this information to be satire.

Bethany Leanne Markowski was born on February 1, 1990 in Tennessee to parents Larry and Johnnie Jo Markowski. In March of 2001, Bethany's parents were in the midst of a somewhat contentious divorce. It had gotten to the point where Johnnie fled with Bethany while Larry was at work from their home in Gleason, Tennessee because he was apparently controlling and abusive. Johnnie and Bethany went to Johnnie's sister's home near Nashville (two hours away)--the sisteaunt's name is Lori. There is little background on Bethany's childhood other than this.
Johnnie would enroll Bethany in a new school, not telling Larry the school's name or where exactly it was. Johnnie also filed a protective order against Larry, but he was granted unsupervised visits with Bethany anyway. However, due to the protective order, Lori would meet Larry at a neutral halfway point (the town of Waverly) to exchange custody of Bethany. This exchange would happen on Friday, Larry would have Bethany for the weekend, with the return exchange taking place on Sundays at 5pm.
On Friday, March 2, 2001, Lori drove with Bethany to Waverly where Larry picked her up without a hitch. As expected, Larry was supposed to drop Bethany back off that Sunday (March 4) at 5pm. But that didn't happen the way it should have.
Apparently on Sunday the 4th, Bethany and Larry drove to Little Rock Arkansas to visit one of Larry's friends. This is over a four hour drive from the drop off point in Waverly. According to Johnnie, the morning of the 4th, Bethany called her. There are reports about what Bethany said, but one source I saw added something that Bethany supposedly said (or maybe she said both things, but I wanted to include both quotes). Bethany either said: "Dad knows you have a boyfriend," or "I'll be seeing you at 5:00pm, right?" According to Johnnie, Bethany asked Johnnie repeatedly about being there at 5pm. But because of the divorce proceedings and court orders, Johnnie couldn't pick up Bethany, that was why her sister Lori did the picking up and dropping off. Apparently this was only the second weekend that Larry had Bethany for the weekend, and the first weekend went well.
When Larry and Bethany began driving back to Tennessee in the afternoon of the 4th. Sometime between 2:30 and 3:30 that afternoon, Larry stopped at the Old Hickory Mall in Jackson, Tennessee. Bethany said she needed to use the bathroom, so she went inside the mall by herself. Larry, on the other hand, decided to take a nap in his car. Larry claimed that when he woke up half an hour to an hour later, Bethany hadn't come back to the car, so he went inside the mall to look for her, checking stores she would've gone to, like Claire's and the video arcade. Larry would call the police at 5:15pm when he couldn't find Bethany in the mall (note this is fifteen minutes after the appointed custody hand off time).
According to the Charley Project: Investigators said that Bethany is not seen on the security camera videotapes filmed at Old Hickory Mall on March 4. There is no proof that she actually entered the establishment. Bethany also wasn't found on camera footage in any of the stores inside the mall. Larry stood by his story, but the local police don't believe Larry's story. Johnnie just wanted Bethany to return home. Two days after Bethany vanished into thin air, the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation became involved in the case so more resources could be utilized.
Shortly after Bethany vanished, witnesses came forward to say they'd seen Bethany with an unidentified white woman. This woman even tried to enroll Bethany at a local school in southeastern Tennessee in April 2001--one month after Bethany vanished and was later seen boarding a bus that may have been traveling to Moline, Illinois, with Bethany. This woman is described as being between 42 and 44 years old (in 2001), around 5'4 and 185 pounds. This woman had blonde hair and brown eyes, and looked to be somewhat unkept, with dark circles under her eyes and her clothes looked to be dirty/unwashed.
While the police/investigators haven't named a specific person of interest, they have said that both of Bethany's parents still remain persons of interest. Although Larry has been under more scrutiny because his story has never really made any sense. However, Larry has continued to deny that he did anything to Bethany. There is also a slim possibility that Bethany was taken by a stranger before she made it inside the mall. Bethany's mom Johnnie has never given up hope that Bethany is out there somewhere and even was instrumental in the creation of Tennessee's Missing Children's Day, March 4, the anniversary of Bethany's disappearance.
At the time Bethany Markowski vanished, she was 11 years old. Bethany is between 4'8 and 5'0 inches tall, between 95-100 pounds, and has brown hair and blue eyes. On the day she vanished, Bethany was wearing a green t-shirt, blue or black jeans and black slip on shoes. Today, Bethany would be 33 years old.
Sources:
https://charleyproject.org/case/bethany-leanne-markowski
https://www.wbir.com/article/news/crime/true-crime/20-years-later-arkansas-mother-still-seeks-answers-in-her-11-year-old-daughters-disappearance/51-81dfb1f5-07d4-40ac-8b37-3f1b9485d9a4
https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/cold-case-spotlight/bethany-markowski-still-missing-18-years-after-disappearing-tennessee-n978436
https://wreg.com/news/mom-responsible-for-tennessee-missing-childrens-day-still-looking-for-her-daughter-20-years-late
https://www.jacksonsun.com/story/news/2022/05/19/bethany-markowskis-mom-jonnie-carter-fingerprinting-lexington-high-school/9789986002/
https://original.newsbreak.com/@fatim-hemraj-561392/2868358838019-in-2001-a-man-said-he-lost-his-11-year-old-daughter-at-the-mall-cctv-footage-proved-she-was-never-even-there
https://www.missingkids.org/blog/2021/dear-bethany-20-years-missing
https://people.com/crime/tennessee-girl-vanished-2001-11-years-old-mom-hopes-reunion/
https://www.pollyklaas.org/missing-children/bethany-leanne-markowski/
https://www.wbbjtv.com/2018/05/18/missing-girls-father-speaks-first-time-17-years/
https://medium.com/@jennbaxter_69070/missing-in-tennessee-where-is-bethany-markowski-2602036481fc

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday as investors try to shake off latest bank fears: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low

We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence

The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.

The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything

The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead

While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:

• How big will the impact be?
  
• How long will the impact last?
  

These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:

• Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
  
• Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
  

Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.

Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?

Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.

A Fed Day Like Most Others

Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.

It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Why is this happening?

The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.

Why this matters to investors?

The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.

FANG+ Flying

As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned

It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust

Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 24th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3/26/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday as investors try to shake off latest bank fears: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low

We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence

The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.

The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything

The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead

While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:

• How big will the impact be?
  
• How long will the impact last?
  

These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:

• Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
  
• Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
  

Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.

Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?

Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.

A Fed Day Like Most Others

Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.

It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Why is this happening?

The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.

Why this matters to investors?

The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.

FANG+ Flying

As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned

It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust

Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 24th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3/26/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday as investors try to shake off latest bank fears: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low

We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence

The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.

The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything

The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead

While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:

• How big will the impact be?
  
• How long will the impact last?
  

These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:

• Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
  
• Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
  

Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.

Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?

Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.

A Fed Day Like Most Others

Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.

It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Why is this happening?

The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.

Why this matters to investors?

The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.

FANG+ Flying

As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned

It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust

Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 24th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3/26/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday as investors try to shake off latest bank fears: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low

We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence

The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.

The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything

The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead

While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:

• How big will the impact be?
  
• How long will the impact last?
  

These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:

• Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
  
• Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
  

Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.

Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?

Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.

A Fed Day Like Most Others

Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.

It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Why is this happening?

The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.

Why this matters to investors?

The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.

FANG+ Flying

As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned

It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust

Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 24th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3/26/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday as investors try to shake off latest bank fears: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low

We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence

The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.

The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything

The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead

While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:

• How big will the impact be?
  
• How long will the impact last?
  

These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:

• Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
  
• Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
  

Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.

Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?

Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.

A Fed Day Like Most Others

Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.

It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Why is this happening?

The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.

Why this matters to investors?

The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.

FANG+ Flying

As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned

It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust

Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 24th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3/26/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on FinancialMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday as investors try to shake off latest bank fears: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low

We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence

The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.

The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything

The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead

While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:

• How big will the impact be?
  
• How long will the impact last?
  

These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:

• Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
  
• Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
  

Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.

Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?

Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.

A Fed Day Like Most Others

Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.

It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Why is this happening?

The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.

Why this matters to investors?

The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.

FANG+ Flying

As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned

It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust

Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 24th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3/26/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead FinancialMarket. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday as investors try to shake off latest bank fears: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low

We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence

The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.

The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything

The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead

While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:

• How big will the impact be?
  
• How long will the impact last?
  

These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:

• Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
  
• Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
  

Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.

Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?

Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.

A Fed Day Like Most Others

Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.

It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Why is this happening?

The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.

Why this matters to investors?

The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.

FANG+ Flying

As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.

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Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.

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More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.

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March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned

It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.

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Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust

Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.

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Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.

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On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.

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Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).

Here are the most notable companies reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

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(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

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DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks. :)