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2023.06.07 09:08 AdmirableUsual2763 U.S. Hotel Toiletries Market by [2023-2030] with SHARE and Business REVENUE
2023.06.05 23:44 rgent006 Redditors on the PCT Week 13 (5 JUNE 2023)
Hiker | Trail Name | Start Date | Current Location-ish | Week 12 Update: |
---|---|---|---|---|
u/Schrodingers-cat-30 | Ditto | MAR 2 2023 (NOBO) | Sierra Nevada | 6/5: no update posted |
u/TrailNicks, Link 2 | Golden | MAR 5 2023 (NOBO) | flipping to Old Station | 6/5: took a detour to SanFran to visit mama after KMS, flipping up to Old Station |
u/TrailHead42 | Trailhead | MAR 10 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 6/5: no update posted |
u/juliozz59, Link 2 | Spread | MAR 20 2023 (NOBO) | Sierra Nevada | 6/5: should be arriving in Bishop soon if not already, summitted Mt Whitney!!! |
u/emdem55 | Keys | MAR 22 2023 (NOBO) | Off Trail! | 6/5: off trail to await snow melt |
u/Beefandsteel | MAR 22 2023 (NOBO) | Off Trail! | 6/5: off trail to await snow melt | |
u/jacobburns | MAR 22 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 6/5: no update posted | |
u/ThrowAwayTheAT | MAR 22 2023 (NOBO) | Sierra Nevada | 6/5: Sierra Nevada | |
u/7-legged-octopus | MAR 27 2023 (NOBO) | Off Trail! | 6/5: got to KMS and decided to flip to WA and SOBO. Taking a few weeks off for snow | |
u/frankiehikes | Tabs | MAR 28 2023 (NOBO) | NorCal | 6/5: Flipped up to NorCal |
u/particularamphibian, Link 2, Link 3 | MAR 28 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 6/5: no update posted | |
u/yourgirlbribri | MAR 29 2023 (NOBO) | Off Trail! | 6/5: Completed the desert portion! | |
u/Intrepid-Ad-4770, Link 2 | Sweets | MAR 29 2023 (NOBO) | KMS | 6/5: hustled 200mi over 10 days, nero'd in Tehachapi and now KMS bound! |
u/Future_Psychology_91 | Dundee on the AT.. on the PCT? | MAR 30 2023 (NOBO) | NorCal | 6/5: flipped up to NorCal, hit mi 1000 - blessed with running water high in the pines |
u/Kalmes12345 | MAR 31 2023 (NOBO) | Off Trail! | 6/5: off trail to await snow melt | |
u/chroniclesofvanlife, Link 2, Link 3 | Stitches | APR 1 2023 (NOBO) | Bishop | 6/5: living up to her trail name and had to get helicopter evacuated near Pinchot Pass for stitches again. Currently in great care and getting back on at Bishop |
u/nataliethisisnatalie | Bestie | APR 1 2023 (NOBO) | On Trail! | 6/5: first marathon day! SOBO'd from Big Bear to Cabazon and officially closed their gap |
u/Phantom_dong | APR 5 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 6/5: no update posted | |
u/pelostrece | Spanish Inquisition | APR 5 2023 (NOBO) | mi 1200ish | 6/5: "spectacular scenery, we saw our first bear ... dozens of frozen lakes, spectacular scenery and very variable but respectful weather" |
u/UtahHiker69 | Fry Pocket | APR 6 2023 (NOBO) | Sierra Nevada | 6/5: "Man, I love this adventure. Every day is something new." heading into the sierra today. Best of luck! |
u/shoebinn, Link 2 | APR 7 2023 (NOBO) | Off Trail! | 6/5: off trail to await snow melt | |
u/evoncassier | APR 7 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 6/5: no update posted | |
u/RedNi12 | APR 9 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 6/5: no update posted | |
u/tomnomnom17 | APR 10 2023 (NOBO) | On Trail! | 6/5: hit mi 700! | |
u/Beccatravels | Pepper | APR 10 2023 (NOBO) | mi 550ish | 6/5: night hiked LA AQ " The beginning is fun, the middle is a bit tedious, and by the end we are deliriously tired so it’s maybe fun again??" |
u/jesshikes | APR 11 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 6/5: no update posted | |
u/DrWolffe | Scrambles | APR 11 2023 (NOBO) | Sierra Nevada | 6/5: officially in the sierra! |
u/mikenikey | Water Taxi | APR 12 2023 (NOBO) | Sierra Nevada | 6/5: hit KMS after a short jaunt off trail and ready to enter the sierra |
u/woodsbearoutdoors | APR 14 2023 (NOBO) | flipping North | 6/5: "Dipping our toes in the Sierras before we flip up north." | |
u/pollyf | APR 14 2023 (NOBO) | flipping North | 6/5: "4am starts, walking through the night, Joshua trees, wind burn, sand, endless stretches with no water, buckets of sun cream (for me, no one else on the pct believes in spf), mountains, rattle snakes and to top it off yesterday we saw our first BEAR." | |
u/hallroosevelt, Link 2 | APR 15 2023 (NOBO) | Sierra Nevada | 6/5: made it to KMS! "Tomorrow I will set out into the high sierra to take on the first 90 mile stretch. I’ll be walking into a world of white snow. I expect this to be the most challenging push yet, but possibly the most rewarding 😌 Feeling excited, nervous and cautious. Oh what a feeling." | |
u/AgentDouble00 | Doppler | APR 15 2023 (NOBO) | On Trail! | 6/5: On Trail! |
u/Bullish_bear000 | APR 19 2023 (NOBO) | On Trail! | 6/5: pulling consistent 20+ days churning out the desert | |
u/esahr | Guidebook | APR 19 2023 (NOBO) | flipping North | 6/5: flipping north out of Walker Pass |
u/Just_karo | Flamethrower | APR 20 2023 (NOBO) | On Trail! | 6/5: flipping north out of Walker Pass |
u/charles1503, Link 2, Link 3 | APR 21 2023 (NOBO) | approaching KMS | 6/5: "Got to experience faster days + more mileage. Saw a random tiger. Almost done with the desert section. We’re now getting ready and moving towards Kennedy Meadows South to start The Sierra." | |
u/B2Pats | Marine | APR 23 2023 (NOBO) | past Tehachapi | 6/5: had some foot pain but rested in Tehachapi and onward to finish the desert |
u/loganlaliberte | Juice | APR 25 2023 (NOBO) | Wrightwood | 6/5: "sometimes you gotta close a door to open a window" |
u/FishingFrank, Link 2 | Papa Roja | APR 26 2023 (NOBO) | Tehachapi | 6/5: "Have to turn back because of a wildfire on trail next to 58. Tehachapi didn't want us to go yet!" |
u/Havasu-Hiker23, u/Havasu-hiker | Stix | APR 26 2023 (NOBO) | approaching KMS | 6/5: "I am excited to walk up to the traditional “round of applause!” from the other hikers & get my cheeseburger and beer!" |
u/MoonMoonMoonMooon | APR 27 2023 (NOBO - Section) | No update posted | 6/5: no update posted | |
u/hejkathinka, Link 2 | CEO | APR 28 2023 (NOBO) | past Tehachapi | 6/5: pulling 30mi days like it's no big deal. Last week in the desert! |
u/free-bobby-now | Worthy | APR 29 2023 (NOBO) | Flipping to WA | 6/5: got off at Walker Pass to flip up to WA "I was a bit sad knowing I won’t be hiking with them anymore, but I am excited to cross paths with them again in the future when I am Southbounding." |
u/Mschoee | MAY 1 2023 (NOBO) | past mi 300 | 6/5: "With all the adjustments as brought a lot of joy in challenging myself and seeing improvements as I get stronger and more confident everyday." | |
u/loombisaurus | Daisy | MAY 1 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 6/5: no update posted |
u/MoogyzHikez, u/environmental-pop-11 | MAY 4 2023 (NOBO) | On Trail! | 6/5: had pizza in Big Bear and made a friend | |
u/sharkdork | MAY 5 2023 (NOBO) | On Trail! | 6/5: sunrises and sunsets on trail | |
u/Kristi_Tho | MAY 6 2023 (NOBO) | Wrightwood | 6/5: "After two zero days we walked nearly 100 miles in 6 days. We finished Section C and today took our one millionth step since starting the trail 4 weeks ago." | |
u/jkeller52 | MAY 10 2023 (NOBO) | Baden Powell | 6/5: "Since Jacinto, I’ve been feeling stronger and averaging 20 mile days. The trail is starting to seem normal, and I’m enjoying what every day and section of wilderness has to offer." | |
u/Powerful-Plantain-84 | MAY 10 2023 (NOBO) | Past LA AQ | 6/5: Day hiked LA AQ, hit 500 mi mark! | |
u/kinn0n14 | Jabberwocky | MAY 13 2023 (NOBO) | On Trail! | 6/5: Switchbacks near Idyllwild |
u/dgerken81 | Hot Pink | MAY 13 2023 (NOBO) | On Trail! | 6/5: posting in arrears (2 weeks behind) |
u/innoutberger | Jenga | MAY 14 2023 (NOBO) | NorCal | 6/5: "After 1,121 days and over 6,000 miles of hiking, I have at last reached the halfway point of the PCT!! So good to be connecting this footpath that stretches across the country, one step at a time." |
u/spiderwinder23 | MAY 15 2023 (NOBO) | Wrightwood | 6/5: " I may have gotten a mile off trail by accident so I wandered to a highway were Kate, an amazing older lady, gave me a ride into town saving me 14mi of hiking. " | |
u/positiv3vib3z | MAY 15 2023 (NOBO) | Cajon Pass | 6/5: Cajon Pass McD's. | |
u/niccolojoe | MAY 18 2023 (NOBO) | past mi 300 | 6/5: hit mi 300! "San Jacinto was beautiful" | |
u/packfullofgoldbars | MAY 20 2023 (NOBO - Section) | Big Bear | 6/5: "PCT Scene Report, I’m officially Karaoke-Blazing " | |
u/bongwaterbaneRYO | The Bane | MAY 20 2023 (NOBO) | past Idyllwild | 6/5: took a day off in Idyllwild |
u/bbqbaconsandwich | MAY 22 2023 (NOBO) | past mi 200 | 6/5: hit mi 200 and doordashed Chipotle to the I-10 underpass. Legendary! | |
u/Big_Bad_Panda | Tinman | MAY 25 2023 (NOBO) | approaching mi 200 | 6/5: "151 miles in. Two things I’ve learned. 1. Check the bush for a snake. 2. There is a snake in that bush." |
u/brick_50 | MAY 25 2023 (NOBO) | On Trail! | 6/5: "We got some miles behind us, the desert is cool, plenty of lizards and cool friendly" | |
u/margot380, Link 2 | JUL 2 2023 (SOBO) | Not Yet On Trail | ||
u/jocheeseburger11 | Early Bird | JUL 7 2023 (SOBO) | Not Yet On Trail | |
u/Sea_counter8398 | JUL 8 2023 (SOBO) | Not Yet On Trail | ||
u/lilmisscactus | JUL 8 2023 (SOBO) | Not Yet On Trail | ||
u/Agreeable_Ad_5423 | JUL 10 2023 (SOBO) | Not Yet On Trail | ||
u/canthinkofone9 | Sweet Rinn | JUL 26 2023 (SOBO - Section) | Not Yet On Trail |
2023.06.03 21:13 newmusicrls Beatport Melodic House and Techno Top 100 June 2023
2023.06.03 19:25 weluvmusic Beatport Top 100 Melodic House & Techno June 2023
2023.06.02 13:35 deeptechsharing Beatport Top 100 Melodic House & Techno June 2023 320kbps / FLAC
2023.06.02 03:18 marvinapplegate1964 Want to Find Name of Deceased Person that Burned Down My House
2023.06.02 02:49 Throwaway29292928 [Car] Dodge Challenger 2018, 3.6L V6 Engine Overheating
2023.05.31 22:36 AbsolutusVirtus [NM] Louis Vuitton Damier Graphite Josh Backpack - 100 spots at $18.50/ea with NO spot limit.
Item Name: | Louis Vuitton Damier Graphite Josh Backpack |
---|---|
Price: | $1,850.00 |
# of Spots: | 100 @ $18.50/Spot |
Price Justification: | Sold for $3,030.00 |
Price Justification: | Sold for $2,386.00 |
Price Justification: | Sold for $2,200.00 |
Call spots? | Y |
Spot limit per person? | No |
Location/Country: | CANADA |
Will ship international? | USA/CANADA/INTL (Shipping rules apply) |
Timestamp/pics: | Album + Timestamp |
Escrow: | I am for WillSvg |
Description: | Here for raffle we have a Louis Vuitton Josh backpack in the black damier canvas. The bag features dual padded shoulder straps, silver-tone hardware, single zip pocket at front, three compartments inside and a zip closure at top. The bag comes as is. The item has been worn but is in good condition, normal wear. No flaws such as scratches and holes on the bag |
2023.05.31 22:23 OldTowneDuck Imagine No 91 Freeway
2023.05.31 05:12 Crazy_car_guy96 What can I(26M) do to make my partner(23M) happy again after we had a major spot today?
2023.05.30 00:36 PierogiPasties FasTrak 91 Freeway help
2023.05.27 17:49 rgent006 Redditors on the PCT Week 12 (27 MAY 2023)
Hiker | Trail Name | Start Date | Current Location-ish | Week 11 Update: |
---|---|---|---|---|
u/Schrodingers-cat-30 | Ditto | MAR 2 2023 (NOBO) | Sierra Nevada | 5/26: no update posted |
u/TrailNicks, Link 2 | Golden | MAR 5 2023 (NOBO) | not sure | 5/26: Had a grand old time at KMS, but may be skipping north? |
u/TrailHead42 | Trailhead | MAR 10 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 5/26: no update posted |
u/juliozz59, Link 2 | Spread | MAR 20 2023 (NOBO) | On Trail! | 5/26: practicing fire safety on trail |
u/emdem55 | Keys | MAR 22 2023 (NOBO) | Off Trail! | 5/26: off trail to await snow melt |
u/Beefandsteel | MAR 22 2023 (NOBO) | Off Trail! | 5/26: off trail to await snow melt | |
u/jacobburns | MAR 22 2023 (NOBO) | past mi 400 | 5/26: Cajon Pass McD's, hit mi 400, "had the final party at The Oasis in Agua Dulce before they banned alcohol" | |
u/ThrowAwayTheAT | MAR 22 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 5/26: no update posted | |
u/7-legged-octopus | MAR 27 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 5/26: no update posted | |
u/frankiehikes | Tabs | MAR 28 2023 (NOBO) | Off Trail! | 5/26: Off trail to await snow melt, flipping to NorCal |
u/particularamphibian, Link 2, Link 3 | MAR 28 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 5/26: no update posted | |
u/yourgirlbribri | MAR 29 2023 (NOBO) | On Trail! | 5/26: no update posted | |
u/Intrepid-Ad-4770, Link 2 | Sweets | MAR 29 2023 (NOBO) | past Tehachapi | 5/26: "Now this the desert i thoughtit would be! Hot and LONG water carries" |
u/Future_Psychology_91 | Dundee on the AT.. on the PCT? | MAR 30 2023 (NOBO) | Tehachapi | 5/26: took a couple zero's in Tehachapi |
u/Kalmes12345 | MAR 31 2023 (NOBO) | Off Trail! | 5/26: Taking some time off to travel while waiting for snow melt | |
u/chroniclesofvanlife, Link 2, Link 3 | Stitches | APR 1 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 5/26: no update posted |
u/nataliethisisnatalie | Bestie | APR 1 2023 (NOBO) | Big Bear | 5/26: "Mile 369.3 - 266.1, Returning to trail after our weekend in Wrightwood felt natural and calm. Compared to the previous week, this one was a walk in the park!" |
u/Phantom_dong | APR 5 2023 (NOBO) | Sierra Nevada | 5/26: "There were multiple times that there were semi-fresh tracks on the trail that I would follow for miles. I even saw a baby print at one point… Along with all this, I passed both the 25% mark as well as 700 miles from the Mexico border. " | |
u/pelostrece | Spanish Inquisition | APR 5 2023 (NOBO) | SL Tahoe | 5/26: decided to skip up to Tahoe |
u/UtahHiker69 | Fry Pocket | APR 6 2023 (NOBO) | KMS | 5/26: winning the award for most fun had on trail so far! |
u/shoebinn, Link 2 | APR 7 2023 (NOBO) | Off Trail! | 5/26: hit mi 600 but posted this morning that they are taking a train from Bakersfield to Portland so might be off trail for a little? | |
u/evoncassier | APR 7 2023 (NOBO) | On Trail! | 5/26: "The more I use my body, the quieter my mind becomes. Journaling is almost nonexistent. Dirt adds texture to your food but it’s a terrible seasoning." | |
u/RedNi12 | APR 9 2023 (NOBO) | LA AQ | 5/26: night hiked the LA AQ | |
u/tomnomnom17 | APR 10 2023 (NOBO) | On Trail! | 5/26: Wind farms for days | |
u/Beccatravels | Pepper | APR 10 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 5/26: no update posted |
u/jesshikes | APR 11 2023 (NOBO) | KMS | 5/26: "The Desert: the first major section of the PCT—702 miles; full of snow, waterless exposed ridges, valleys, and lots of ice cream." | |
u/DrWolffe | Scrambles | APR 11 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 5/26: No update posted |
u/mikenikey | Water Taxi | APR 12 2023 (NOBO) | Off Trail! | 5/26: had an unfortunate time and got airlifted to a hospital, getting back on at Walker Pass at a later date |
u/woodsbearoutdoors | APR 14 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 5/26: no update posted | |
u/pollyf | APR 14 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 5/26: no update posted | |
u/hallroosevelt, Link 2 | APR 15 2023 (NOBO) | past Tehachapi | 5/26: night hiked the LA AQ, | |
u/AgentDouble00 | Doppler | APR 15 2023 (NOBO) | Warner Springs | 5/27: Warner Springs |
u/Bullish_bear000 | APR 19 2023 (NOBO) | Baden Powell | 5/27: Crosscountry skiied into Wrightwood, broke a trekking pole, and then plans to crawl back up to Baden Powell | |
u/esahr | Guidebook | APR 19 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 5/27: No update posted |
u/Just_karo | Flamethrower | APR 20 2023 (NOBO) | On Trail! | 5/27: "Good times and good friends - what else do you need!" |
u/charles1503, Link 2, Link 3 | APR 21 2023 (NOBO) | mi 450ish | 5/27: hit 400 mi mark! Getting awesome trail magic in the desert | |
u/B2Pats | Marine | APR 23 2023 (NOBO) | past mi 400 | 5/27: "I'm thinking I'll try the Sierra (Motor and Sister too), others don't. Things may change before then, but in the meantime, let's make the most of it." |
u/loganlaliberte | Juice | APR 25 2023 (NOBO) | Mill Creek | 5/27: catching beautiful sunrises in the desert |
u/FishingFrank, Link 2 | Papa Roja | APR 26 2023 (NOBO) | past Wrightwood | 5/27: "Sunsets and a sunrise before making the last push into Wrightwood!" |
u/Havasu-Hiker23, u/Havasu-hiker | Stix | APR 26 2023 (NOBO) | approaching mi 500 | 5/27: stayed in Acton, hit mi 400! Vasquez Rocks "The overcast skies were amazing all day, keeping the temperature down!" |
u/MoonMoonMoonMooon | APR 27 2023 (NOBO - Section) | No update posted | 5/27: No update posted | |
u/hejkathinka, Link 2 | CEO | APR 28 2023 (NOBO) | mi 400ish | 5/27: Beautiful sunrises and sunsets in the desert |
u/Mschoee | MAY 1 2023 (NOBO) | past Cajon Pass | 5/27: hot springs and McD's, need I say more? | |
u/loombisaurus | Daisy | MAY 1 2023 (NOBO) | approaching KMS | 5/27: back on trail, dropped gear off at KMS and went back to make up miles, will attempt the sierra "it makes my hair stand on end and my blood vessels dilate." |
u/MoogyzHikez, u/environmental-pop-11 | MAY 4 2023 (NOBO) | On Trail! | 5/27: On Trail! | |
u/sharkdork | MAY 5 2023 (NOBO) | approaching mi 400 | 5/27: hit 300 mi mark! | |
u/Kristi_Tho | MAY 6 2023 (NOBO) | Big Bear | 5/27: "Now taking two “zero” days in Big Bear Lake to resupply and catch up on some luxuries (margaritas) #pct2023" | |
u/jkeller52 | MAY 10 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 5/26: no update posted | |
u/Powerful-Plantain-84 | MAY 10 2023 (NOBO) | Requested IG | 5/26: requested access to IG | |
u/kinn0n14 | Jabberwocky | MAY 13 2023 (NOBO) | On Trail! | 5/26: Hit 100 mi mark! |
u/dgerken81 | Hot Pink | MAY 13 2023 (NOBO) | past mi 100 | 5/26: "Big Miles & Burnt out." |
u/innoutberger | Jenga | MAY 14 2023 (NOBO) | On Trail! | 5/26: "The snowpack continues to blanket the landscape, burying the trees, trail, water sources, and my sense of sanity along with it." |
u/spiderwinder23 | MAY 15 2023 (NOBO) | Off Trail! | 5/26: Caught a stomach bug around MVM, taking a few days off but getting back on for SanJac region | |
u/niccolojoe | MAY 18 2023 (NOBO) | On Trail! | 5/26: On Trail! | |
u/packfullofgoldbars | MAY 20 2023 (NOBO - Section) | past mi 100 | 5/26: Hit 100 mi mark! | |
u/bongwaterbaneRYO | The Bane | MAY 20 2023 (NOBO) | past Mt Laguna | 5/26: second time on the PCT, made it to Mt Laguna. "Everything about the PCT has been just as magical as I remember." |
u/bbqbaconsandwich | MAY 22 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 5/26: No update from trail yet | |
u/Big_Bad_Panda | Tinman | MAY 25 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 5/27: no update from trail yet |
u/brick_50 | MAY 25 2023 (NOBO) | No update posted | 5/27: no update from trail yet | |
u/margot380, Link 2 | JUL 2 2023 (SOBO) | Not Yet On Trail | ||
u/jocheeseburger11 | Early Bird | JUL 7 2023 (SOBO) | Not Yet On Trail | |
u/Sea_counter8398 | JUL 8 2023 (SOBO) | Not Yet On Trail | ||
u/lilmisscactus | JUL 8 2023 (SOBO) | Not Yet On Trail | ||
u/Agreeable_Ad_5423 | JUL 10 2023 (SOBO) | Not Yet On Trail | ||
u/canthinkofone9 | Sweet Rinn | JUL 26 2023 (SOBO - Section) | Not Yet On Trail |
2023.05.27 01:28 raven080068 Good news. No freeway closures this weekend.
2023.05.27 00:21 DaddyDersch The road to 430 continues… 5-26-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ, VIX, DXY and 10YR YIELD Weekly Market Analysis
![]() | *REPOSTING DUE TO "BANNED TICKER" IN MY PICTURE THAT WASNT THERE* submitted by DaddyDersch to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] Well it was this time last week that I said I expected us to move to 430s and that we would continue this bull run. The market decided it wanted to pullback and test 410 support first, however, with our first closure over 420 since August 19th I believe this bull run is just getting started. Looking back I was one day too early on Wednesday with my swing calls… shoulda done 3-7dte like I had considered before. EVENTS https://preview.redd.it/6dvogrhn392b1.png?width=623&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f835e41210c8a3a96589ff18a23263813266375 First of if you didn’t know… the markets are all closed Monday! We have 4 fed speakers spread out through the week next week. And we also have a ton of heavy hitting data Wednesday through Friday. The most important one that I am waiting is JOLTS Wednesday, non farm Thursday and unemployment rate Friday. MAKE IT MAKE SENSE If you remember post the last two FOMCs JPOW basically said we are not going to stop rate hiking and that will we will not see any rate cuts in 2023… What did markets do? Markets priced in a bunch of rate cuts by EOY (100bps cuts at one point but for the most part it was 75bps) and that sent the markets absolutely rallying… Now look at this… https://preview.redd.it/blu244xn392b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=ffa281d3574b767eac56502d2fe7b69a3760d566 In the last week the markets have went from a 17.4% odds of a 25bps rate HIKE at the June meeting to now a 71.1% chance of a rate hike… yet what happened this week? We rallied.. https://preview.redd.it/22wl8rbo392b1.png?width=898&format=png&auto=webp&s=0bf6c486dbccbb609eaacd716965dbcec43cb7a4 Now not only that… but the markets went from just one week ago today pricing in a 44.7% odds of 75bps rate CUTS by end of year to now pricing in 39.4% odds (the highest odds) that we do not see any rate cuts by end of year… Now I know markets can be a bit wacky… but how does it make sense that the markets went from expecting a fed pause and 75bps of rate CUTS by end of year to now expecting 25bps of rate HIKES next meeting and NO CUTS in one week and that week closes green on SPY? SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/zxuvczro392b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=d93eeae508dfd0c5969131dece851c851dbba8fe On the Daily we officially established a new demand (support) at 414.55. As I suspected if we pushed higher we would indeed make a new demand. The daily DMI is now waving higher and we have a new demand with bullish weekly support… the upside is what I would be looking for here and there is no real sense in shorting SPY right now. We also closed over 418.78 and 419.5 supply… this means until we put a new supply in and we would need two red days back to back to do that our target remains the 429.68 area I pointed out last Friday. SPY WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/jvap7d7p392b1.png?width=952&format=png&auto=webp&s=055f4a2124b1bbf77755c15b0dae9302d408bfe2 On a weekly time frame here the bears actually put up a REALLY big fight and until today the weekly was going to make a new supply and at one point we attempted to set up a closure below the weekly 411.46 demand. Nonetheless though bulls pushed us and we now sit over the 416.09 weekly supply after retesting support of the 411.46 demand. The weekly DMI continues to wave up and we also continue to push higher with no new weekly supply… Our target remains 427.35 and in the chance we blow through that roof I have no major supply level until 453.23. SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/8tdzi1pp392b1.png?width=905&format=png&auto=webp&s=d6fbf7cb6dd0244b72fd4005441653ff802b9ded As you can see from the daily here we once action have made a new lower rising wedge support (this has been a theme for a while now). We also had a very nice v bottom off of 410.53 and we have for the first time since August closed over 419.5 resistance. Its not pictured here but this orange channel has a upper resistance of 427.5. As of right now that is the bulls target. We will keep a close eye on that red rising wedge though as this resistance could still with 3 touches hold as resistance into next week. SPY WEEKLY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/kltuvx4q392b1.png?width=952&format=png&auto=webp&s=aeb7b4292756ecd79b6489c5619f29571af292a6 As you can see we are in a bigger blue rising wedge that days back to September and we are also in more of a short term black/ blue rising wedge. This blue rising wedge resistance is all the way up at 434.27 for next week and shows a clear path to 430-440 by end of June. The black rising wedge resistance sits at 425.4 for next week. The way this weekly candle with the very long wick bounce off the weekly 8ema is makes me believe in continuation to the upside for next week. SPY Weekly levels Supply- 416.1 -> 427.4 Demand- 411.5 -> 381.7 Support- 418.6 -> 411.6 -> 407.7 Resistance- 422 -> 427.4 -> 431.9 FUTURES DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/mu2oa9jq392b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b3d6604596f931876189b64402fc393468131d1 On the daily chart here for futures we did have one demand left at 4198 and we officially with establishing a new demand (support) at that critical 4156 area actually have just opened the door to the upside in a big way. With a daily closure over 4208/4216 supply our next logical upside target is 4311. FUTURES WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/ji8qvi1r392b1.png?width=669&format=png&auto=webp&s=3a349eef9d3e5e65419473465074c40226813658 Futures weekly is the same story as spy… we attempted to put in a new weekly supply and we also attempted to lose 4130 demand for a while. However as it would be the bulls bounced us right off 4130 demand and now have closed us over 4193 supply. With this move up and the weekly DMI moving up along with no new weekly supply… our favoritism here would be to test 4284 and if we break through that the next major level is all the way up at 4540. FUTURES DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/8b3pz7mr392b1.png?width=918&format=png&auto=webp&s=1fe7ceb6fafd4c03f75daa28a674b9c4024c7ca8 Looking at the daily here on futures we are currently sitting in our 4075 to 4310 channel. Being that we are pushing up that leaves our upside target as 4310. Our rising wedge structure on futures is much different than SPY when we come to resistance but the same support wise. Currently the red rising wedge resistance sits at 4235 for Monday. FUTURES WEEKLY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/6g4ofg2s392b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=a45c85afea02f90775936571092785919cb8e64c On the weekly here you can see that we have the same structure as SPY weekly with the blue rising wedge that slightly bigger followed by the black one. We are now sitting in this 4280 to 4135 channel. Being that we back test the weekly 8ema and 4135 support and was able to hold that shows that we are still bullish here. The black resistance sits at 4243 and the blue rising wedge sits at 4268 for next week. One interesting thing I follow is the JPM collar 7/ 11 week movement. As I said is that usually week 7 to 11 reverses… however, in the chance that the trend does not reverse (which appears to be what is happening right now) then we usually actually see that trend continue even more aggressively. That would mean a potential 3 long bull run could be starting here. That would mean our target is 4300 which is the current JPM collars calls. Futures Weekly Levels Supply- 4193 -> 4284 Demand- 4130 -> 3920 Support- 4184 -> 4132 -> 4075 Resistance- 4230 -> 4283 -> 4328 QQQ DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/l1f97tis392b1.png?width=947&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a0c51152b02f651453cca9cf28a2e35acba9e8f Looking at QQQ daily here we absolutely have rocketed since we put in that 331.35 demand. We now are starting to knock on the door of that 351.57 demand now. If this momentum continues which daily DMI and extreme bull momentum says it should we then should start to looked 351.57 demand -> 357.09 supply and finally the ultimate target of 361.7 demand. However, if we were to retrace at all we should find some major support at the 336.37 to 337.6. QQQ WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/e10lvl3t392b1.png?width=934&format=png&auto=webp&s=0075bc032fd75f67544652ee1eaca1ed633d8064 From the weekly stand point here this charts actually is just insane its pretty much just vertical for the last 2 months now. The bears once again were not able to put in a new weekly supply and the DMI remains waving up with extreme bull momentum. The weekly 8ema which will be around 330.67 next week should once again be considered strong support. As of right now the target remains 361.85 and if we happen to go on that 3 week bull run or a blow off top my target is 382.9/ 384.54 demands. QQQ Weekly Levels Supply- 361.85 -> 330.67 -> 318.64 -> 306.06 Demand- 384.54 -> 382.9 -> 322.47 -> 318.18 VIX https://preview.redd.it/65edf4kt392b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=817f97050cd229c9699b6c26b8764d078db7a516 Now here on the VIX we also put a new carrot top in… the one really interesting thing to me here is the fact that the VIX dumped pretty aggressively all morning and we saw almost -10% at one point and I thought we were going to approach the 16.92 support area… however, what happened that was very interesting is that the VIX actually continued to rise today even though SPY was rising. There was a lot of oddities about today trading but the biggest one remains that from pretty much 1130 until EOD the VIX continued to hold flat and then began to rise… however, SPY also began to rise. It definitely is a phenomenon that doesn’t occur often and makes trading hard. The VIX closed at 17.95 just under that critical 17.97 support. I will be watching Tuesday to see if the VIX continues to sell off or not. The VIX most certainly was reacting (the market) to the fact that a debt ceiling agreement has NOT been reached and as far as I know they are about to go to recess and will not be back in session until Tuesday. Which means according to Yellen if we run out on the 1st that they will have essentially two full days (Tuesday and Wednesday) to come to an agreement… DXY/ 10YR YIELD https://preview.redd.it/fypqqkzt392b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=f3a0960e0633dd35f09ba44f4def8f29526b44be Now I follow the 10yr and DXY every day but I don’t really talk about it every day… but I do find it very interesting that DXY and 10YR both are in the exact same bull channel since the 2nd week of May. What I also find interesting is that DXY and 10YR daily look like a massive cup and handle which means DXY should hit 105.13 to 105.63 again and 10YR should hit 4.011% to 4.049% again. What really is odd about this is the fact that the last time DXY was at this level was March 13th to March 17th, February 16th to February 23rd, and December 13th to January 6th. Spy traded (at close) 385.36 to 389.99, 408.28 to 400.66 and 401.97 to 388.08 during those time periods for an average SPY closing price of 395.67. That means with our closure at 420.02 SPY is trading 6.1% higher than it was when DXY has traded at these levels in the past or about $25. The last time the 10YR was at these levels was March 10th, February 10th to 15th, January 3rd to 5th and December 23rd. During those time periods SPY traded at close at 385.91, 408.04 to 413.98, 380.82 to 379.38 and 382.91. For an average at close trade price of 389.98 which is about $30 higher than current close or 7.7% higher. What does that mean? Well it could mean everything or it could mean nothing… I just find it interesting that over the last 6 months when the 10YR and DXY have been at these levels historically SPY has been trading much much lower. It also is very odd to watch the 10YR and DYX continue to rise each day as SPY and TECH continues to rise… This all feels very much like something is going to break and its going to break in a big big way… the question is just when. WEEKLY TRADING LOG Today was another tough day of trading for me and I ended up closing out a small red day. The last month or so now I have found it extremely difficult for me to remain profitable on Thursday and Fridays. I seem to be in this cycle of absolutely killing it on Monday through Wednesday and then struggling like crazy on Thursday/ Friday. Honestly for me it all comes down to my strategy. My strategy as I have mentioned relies on the technicals of the market. I do not share my full strat but some things I look at and put a ton of weigh in is momentum, DMI, VOLD and VIX. The hardest part about these explosive rallies we have had lately is the fact that those metrics are not aligning. The other hard part is that there is times where after the huge run up where the technicals will point to a perfect put entry… of course I take that and the issue is that the techncials immediately cycle but little to no movement is ever had. The other issue is that it seems like lately premiums at least the last two days for sure have completely lagged moves. I know this morning I played two puts and a call. None of those seemed despite winning on all three to pay any decent reward. I had a few mid day plays too some I closed small wins/ loss and others I stopped that for the size of the move that happened the premium did not reward us very much at all… https://preview.redd.it/vhz6r09v392b1.png?width=925&format=png&auto=webp&s=b98905ecb7105aa397574ea8a74d6f647ecb38d4 I actually did close out my most profitable week of the year again and this is now my 8th green week ibn a row making it my longest win streak of 2023 and my 2nd longest of the last 2 years. One interesting this is that this is also my 2nd lowest weekly win rate of 2023. I had a great beginning of the week but lately as I have said I struggled to close. I have a really nice 3 day weekend again and I have a few things I would like to back test and I have the time to do it. I have one more indicator I use and have on my charts all day as I trade but I don’t necessarily use it on every entry… I am considering if its time to put more weight into it… but I will not be able to do that until I back test… I hope you guys all have a great weekend and for any of you who have had a someone you know whether a friend or family member serve and lost their lives defending our country… I truly thank you for your sacrifice. See you guys Tuesday! |
2023.05.27 00:15 DaddyDersch The road to 430 continues… 5-26-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ, VIX, DXY and 10YR YIELD Weekly Market Analysis
![]() | Well it was this time last week that I said I expected us to move to 430s and that we would continue this bull run. The market decided it wanted to pullback and test 410 support first, however, with our first closure over 420 since August 19th I believe this bull run is just getting started. submitted by DaddyDersch to Daytrading [link] [comments] Looking back I was one day too early on Wednesday with my swing calls… shoulda done 3-7dte like I had considered before. EVENTS https://preview.redd.it/a81rx5fp292b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=1eee4736d859ccbc77fbc30fb2d7dd5092264eab First of if you didn’t know… the markets are all closed Monday! We have 4 fed speakers spread out through the week next week. And we also have a ton of heavy hitting data Wednesday through Friday. The most important one that I am waiting is JOLTS Wednesday, non farm Thursday and unemployment rate Friday. MAKE IT MAKE SENSE If you remember post the last two FOMCs JPOW basically said we are not going to stop rate hiking and that will we will not see any rate cuts in 2023… What did markets do? Markets priced in a bunch of rate cuts by EOY (100bps cuts at one point but for the most part it was 75bps) and that sent the markets absolutely rallying… Now look at this… https://preview.redd.it/q6on98wp292b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=34e234a4f187ce915261bd2a280af00a729f96f2 In the last week the markets have went from a 17.4% odds of a 25bps rate HIKE at the June meeting to now a 71.1% chance of a rate hike… yet what happened this week? We rallied.. https://preview.redd.it/vp3tntbq292b1.png?width=898&format=png&auto=webp&s=af6a1ad37bfca2ce9183bb4c0bd76fb7941a8451 Now not only that… but the markets went from just one week ago today pricing in a 44.7% odds of 75bps rate CUTS by end of year to now pricing in 39.4% odds (the highest odds) that we do not see any rate cuts by end of year… Now I know markets can be a bit wacky… but how does it make sense that the markets went from expecting a fed pause and 75bps of rate CUTS by end of year to now expecting 25bps of rate HIKES next meeting and NO CUTS in one week and that week closes green on SPY? SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/u6u0jqxq292b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=baf1a208f9668041eb4172725c1c94643b1e150d On the Daily we officially established a new demand (support) at 414.55. As I suspected if we pushed higher we would indeed make a new demand. The daily DMI is now waving higher and we have a new demand with bullish weekly support… the upside is what I would be looking for here and there is no real sense in shorting SPY right now. We also closed over 418.78 and 419.5 supply… this means until we put a new supply in and we would need two red days back to back to do that our target remains the 429.68 area I pointed out last Friday. SPY WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/vwey5rir292b1.png?width=952&format=png&auto=webp&s=eff1d77d01744eea4b13c7f83c4e8c53ed252f3e On a weekly time frame here the bears actually put up a REALLY big fight and until today the weekly was going to make a new supply and at one point we attempted to set up a closure below the weekly 411.46 demand. Nonetheless though bulls pushed us and we now sit over the 416.09 weekly supply after retesting support of the 411.46 demand. The weekly DMI continues to wave up and we also continue to push higher with no new weekly supply… Our target remains 427.35 and in the chance we blow through that roof I have no major supply level until 453.23. SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/sph7bm5s292b1.png?width=905&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b0578b097da66262a303b19017d9385358d8132 As you can see from the daily here we once action have made a new lower rising wedge support (this has been a theme for a while now). We also had a very nice v bottom off of 410.53 and we have for the first time since August closed over 419.5 resistance. Its not pictured here but this orange channel has a upper resistance of 427.5. As of right now that is the bulls target. We will keep a close eye on that red rising wedge though as this resistance could still with 3 touches hold as resistance into next week. SPY WEEKLY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/pihrmrks292b1.png?width=952&format=png&auto=webp&s=0db7bb128be560679ebd83d4db89c8e28fc58aa8 As you can see we are in a bigger blue rising wedge that days back to September and we are also in more of a short term black/ blue rising wedge. This blue rising wedge resistance is all the way up at 434.27 for next week and shows a clear path to 430-440 by end of June. The black rising wedge resistance sits at 425.4 for next week. The way this weekly candle with the very long wick bounce off the weekly 8ema is makes me believe in continuation to the upside for next week. SPY Weekly levels Supply- 416.1 -> 427.4 Demand- 411.5 -> 381.7 Support- 418.6 -> 411.6 -> 407.7 Resistance- 422 -> 427.4 -> 431.9 FUTURES DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/ea6dw9zs292b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=236a9379ffe2a18a2322b64ecf212d1222a066f0 On the daily chart here for futures we did have one demand left at 4198 and we officially with establishing a new demand (support) at that critical 4156 area actually have just opened the door to the upside in a big way. With a daily closure over 4208/4216 supply our next logical upside target is 4311. FUTURES WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/xzfv5aht292b1.png?width=669&format=png&auto=webp&s=90752aa9983dc187d4ec6e672e33ecb72bb28b12 Futures weekly is the same story as spy… we attempted to put in a new weekly supply and we also attempted to lose 4130 demand for a while. However as it would be the bulls bounced us right off 4130 demand and now have closed us over 4193 supply. With this move up and the weekly DMI moving up along with no new weekly supply… our favoritism here would be to test 4284 and if we break through that the next major level is all the way up at 4540. FUTURES DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/5yjsr9vt292b1.png?width=918&format=png&auto=webp&s=0fa0421d42d4023c0bc40b0a7e9fe793a0107ac5 Looking at the daily here on futures we are currently sitting in our 4075 to 4310 channel. Being that we are pushing up that leaves our upside target as 4310. Our rising wedge structure on futures is much different than SPY when we come to resistance but the same support wise. Currently the red rising wedge resistance sits at 4235 for Monday. FUTURES WEEKLY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/nq79pcbu292b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=12b0c27df00d5661d7c5d02f70e3806195977f6c On the weekly here you can see that we have the same structure as SPY weekly with the blue rising wedge that slightly bigger followed by the black one. We are now sitting in this 4280 to 4135 channel. Being that we back test the weekly 8ema and 4135 support and was able to hold that shows that we are still bullish here. The black resistance sits at 4243 and the blue rising wedge sits at 4268 for next week. One interesting thing I follow is the JPM collar 7/ 11 week movement. As I said is that usually week 7 to 11 reverses… however, in the chance that the trend does not reverse (which appears to be what is happening right now) then we usually actually see that trend continue even more aggressively. That would mean a potential 3 long bull run could be starting here. That would mean our target is 4300 which is the current JPM collars calls. Futures Weekly Levels Supply- 4193 -> 4284 Demand- 4130 -> 3920 Support- 4184 -> 4132 -> 4075 Resistance- 4230 -> 4283 -> 4328 QQQ DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/vpn2zhsu292b1.png?width=947&format=png&auto=webp&s=80e754a01911e0b871efb721713bd5844347c7af Looking at QQQ daily here we absolutely have rocketed since we put in that 331.35 demand. We now are starting to knock on the door of that 351.57 demand now. If this momentum continues which daily DMI and extreme bull momentum says it should we then should start to looked 351.57 demand -> 357.09 supply and finally the ultimate target of 361.7 demand. However, if we were to retrace at all we should find some major support at the 336.37 to 337.6. QQQ WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/fr82ye8v292b1.png?width=934&format=png&auto=webp&s=a422eea1be0a7acde97c13692d9a10acb7bfd57b From the weekly stand point here this charts actually is just insane its pretty much just vertical for the last 2 months now. The bears once again were not able to put in a new weekly supply and the DMI remains waving up with extreme bull momentum. The weekly 8ema which will be around 330.67 next week should once again be considered strong support. As of right now the target remains 361.85 and if we happen to go on that 3 week bull run or a blow off top my target is 382.9/ 384.54 demands. QQQ Weekly Levels Supply- 361.85 -> 330.67 -> 318.64 -> 306.06 Demand- 384.54 -> 382.9 -> 322.47 -> 318.18 VIX https://preview.redd.it/1n6zgyov292b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=c1bf14ab2c29e7468719f80d50debcc9eb086963 Now here on the VIX we also put a new carrot top in… the one really interesting thing to me here is the fact that the VIX dumped pretty aggressively all morning and we saw almost -10% at one point and I thought we were going to approach the 16.92 support area… however, what happened that was very interesting is that the VIX actually continued to rise today even though SPY was rising. There was a lot of oddities about today trading but the biggest one remains that from pretty much 1130 until EOD the VIX continued to hold flat and then began to rise… however, SPY also began to rise. It definitely is a phenomenon that doesn’t occur often and makes trading hard. The VIX closed at 17.95 just under that critical 17.97 support. I will be watching Tuesday to see if the VIX continues to sell off or not. The VIX most certainly was reacting (the market) to the fact that a debt ceiling agreement has NOT been reached and as far as I know they are about to go to recess and will not be back in session until Tuesday. Which means according to Yellen if we run out on the 1st that they will have essentially two full days (Tuesday and Wednesday) to come to an agreement… DXY/ 10YR YIELD https://preview.redd.it/ryi5695w292b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c80ac812658083c4f006322b431f08a6c25c01f Now I follow the 10yr and DXY every day but I don’t really talk about it every day… but I do find it very interesting that DXY and 10YR both are in the exact same bull channel since the 2nd week of May. What I also find interesting is that DXY and 10YR daily look like a massive cup and handle which means DXY should hit 105.13 to 105.63 again and 10YR should hit 4.011% to 4.049% again. What really is odd about this is the fact that the last time DXY was at this level was March 13th to March 17th, February 16th to February 23rd, and December 13th to January 6th. Spy traded (at close) 385.36 to 389.99, 408.28 to 400.66 and 401.97 to 388.08 during those time periods for an average SPY closing price of 395.67. That means with our closure at 420.02 SPY is trading 6.1% higher than it was when DXY has traded at these levels in the past or about $25. The last time the 10YR was at these levels was March 10th, February 10th to 15th, January 3rd to 5th and December 23rd. During those time periods SPY traded at close at 385.91, 408.04 to 413.98, 380.82 to 379.38 and 382.91. For an average at close trade price of 389.98 which is about $30 higher than current close or 7.7% higher. What does that mean? Well it could mean everything or it could mean nothing… I just find it interesting that over the last 6 months when the 10YR and DXY have been at these levels historically SPY has been trading much much lower. It also is very odd to watch the 10YR and DYX continue to rise each day as SPY and TECH continues to rise… This all feels very much like something is going to break and its going to break in a big big way… the question is just when. WEEKLY TRADING LOG Today was another tough day of trading for me and I ended up closing out a small red day. The last month or so now I have found it extremely difficult for me to remain profitable on Thursday and Fridays. I seem to be in this cycle of absolutely killing it on Monday through Wednesday and then struggling like crazy on Thursday/ Friday. Honestly for me it all comes down to my strategy. My strategy as I have mentioned relies on the technicals of the market. I do not share my full strat but some things I look at and put a ton of weigh in is momentum, DMI, VOLD and VIX. The hardest part about these explosive rallies we have had lately is the fact that those metrics are not aligning. The other hard part is that there is times where after the huge run up where the technicals will point to a perfect put entry… of course I take that and the issue is that the techncials immediately cycle but little to no movement is ever had. The other issue is that it seems like lately premiums at least the last two days for sure have completely lagged moves. I know this morning I played two puts and a call. None of those seemed despite winning on all three to pay any decent reward. I had a few mid day plays too some I closed small wins/ loss and others I stopped that for the size of the move that happened the premium did not reward us very much at all… https://preview.redd.it/55hj0gqw292b1.png?width=925&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a250981b8213897afab98cf9206835a2c57bd89 I actually did close out my most profitable week of the year again and this is now my 8th green week ibn a row making it my longest win streak of 2023 and my 2nd longest of the last 2 years. One interesting this is that this is also my 2nd lowest weekly win rate of 2023. I had a great beginning of the week but lately as I have said I struggled to close. I have a really nice 3 day weekend again and I have a few things I would like to back test and I have the time to do it. I have one more indicator I use and have on my charts all day as I trade but I don’t necessarily use it on every entry… I am considering if its time to put more weight into it… but I will not be able to do that until I back test… I hope you guys all have a great weekend and for any of you who have had a someone you know whether a friend or family member serve and lost their lives defending our country… I truly thank you for your sacrifice. See you guys Tuesday! |
2023.05.27 00:14 DaddyDersch The road to 430 continues… 5-26-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ, VIX, DXY and 10YR YIELD Weekly Market Analysis
![]() | Well it was this time last week that I said I expected us to move to 430s and that we would continue this bull run. The market decided it wanted to pullback and test 410 support first, however, with our first closure over 420 since August 19th I believe this bull run is just getting started. submitted by DaddyDersch to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] Looking back I was one day too early on Wednesday with my swing calls… shoulda done 3-7dte like I had considered before. EVENTS https://preview.redd.it/qjawr42f292b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee706112fd47e230332bf345e5b7c83e6d1c38c6 First of if you didn’t know… the markets are all closed Monday! We have 4 fed speakers spread out through the week next week. And we also have a ton of heavy hitting data Wednesday through Friday. The most important one that I am waiting is JOLTS Wednesday, non farm Thursday and unemployment rate Friday. MAKE IT MAKE SENSE If you remember post the last two FOMCs JPOW basically said we are not going to stop rate hiking and that will we will not see any rate cuts in 2023… What did markets do? Markets priced in a bunch of rate cuts by EOY (100bps cuts at one point but for the most part it was 75bps) and that sent the markets absolutely rallying… Now look at this… https://preview.redd.it/8zz3tzxf292b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=1915a87c88ce0e33e3abeec1f45b63dd03f4f5f3 In the last week the markets have went from a 17.4% odds of a 25bps rate HIKE at the June meeting to now a 71.1% chance of a rate hike… yet what happened this week? We rallied.. https://preview.redd.it/4skx0yeg292b1.png?width=898&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b28d29b66e7ad7358ccaa8dff7e499ef1d8b4c1 Now not only that… but the markets went from just one week ago today pricing in a 44.7% odds of 75bps rate CUTS by end of year to now pricing in 39.4% odds (the highest odds) that we do not see any rate cuts by end of year… Now I know markets can be a bit wacky… but how does it make sense that the markets went from expecting a fed pause and 75bps of rate CUTS by end of year to now expecting 25bps of rate HIKES next meeting and NO CUTS in one week and that week closes green on SPY? SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/ioj7hwug292b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=3250c8bbe738867307da4ea8748187b34c138e5c On the Daily we officially established a new demand (support) at 414.55. As I suspected if we pushed higher we would indeed make a new demand. The daily DMI is now waving higher and we have a new demand with bullish weekly support… the upside is what I would be looking for here and there is no real sense in shorting SPY right now. We also closed over 418.78 and 419.5 supply… this means until we put a new supply in and we would need two red days back to back to do that our target remains the 429.68 area I pointed out last Friday. SPY WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/6em1p7gh292b1.png?width=952&format=png&auto=webp&s=155909c08b914e3abd026cea4f27a773444517c3 On a weekly time frame here the bears actually put up a REALLY big fight and until today the weekly was going to make a new supply and at one point we attempted to set up a closure below the weekly 411.46 demand. Nonetheless though bulls pushed us and we now sit over the 416.09 weekly supply after retesting support of the 411.46 demand. The weekly DMI continues to wave up and we also continue to push higher with no new weekly supply… Our target remains 427.35 and in the chance we blow through that roof I have no major supply level until 453.23. SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/lqc4yjvh292b1.png?width=905&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c7d31115d23b67d38dd0a1297777eb8666cd780 As you can see from the daily here we once action have made a new lower rising wedge support (this has been a theme for a while now). We also had a very nice v bottom off of 410.53 and we have for the first time since August closed over 419.5 resistance. Its not pictured here but this orange channel has a upper resistance of 427.5. As of right now that is the bulls target. We will keep a close eye on that red rising wedge though as this resistance could still with 3 touches hold as resistance into next week. SPY WEEKLY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/szf7dm9i292b1.png?width=952&format=png&auto=webp&s=c8e0c99459fb2d6dc67ff385d6cdf420eb851e85 As you can see we are in a bigger blue rising wedge that days back to September and we are also in more of a short term black/ blue rising wedge. This blue rising wedge resistance is all the way up at 434.27 for next week and shows a clear path to 430-440 by end of June. The black rising wedge resistance sits at 425.4 for next week. The way this weekly candle with the very long wick bounce off the weekly 8ema is makes me believe in continuation to the upside for next week. SPY Weekly levels Supply- 416.1 -> 427.4 Demand- 411.5 -> 381.7 Support- 418.6 -> 411.6 -> 407.7 Resistance- 422 -> 427.4 -> 431.9 FUTURES DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/yqa402pi292b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c58185164cedea8e936dea9b1dc7b6be16abe1b On the daily chart here for futures we did have one demand left at 4198 and we officially with establishing a new demand (support) at that critical 4156 area actually have just opened the door to the upside in a big way. With a daily closure over 4208/4216 supply our next logical upside target is 4311. FUTURES WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/q7n40l6j292b1.png?width=669&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a3ead6fd61597ef7efdc9b05a6958744ae798a1 Futures weekly is the same story as spy… we attempted to put in a new weekly supply and we also attempted to lose 4130 demand for a while. However as it would be the bulls bounced us right off 4130 demand and now have closed us over 4193 supply. With this move up and the weekly DMI moving up along with no new weekly supply… our favoritism here would be to test 4284 and if we break through that the next major level is all the way up at 4540. FUTURES DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/3esl1cnj292b1.png?width=918&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5eb4129d8ee1d3a12e1daee437df7a3a9a857f3 Looking at the daily here on futures we are currently sitting in our 4075 to 4310 channel. Being that we are pushing up that leaves our upside target as 4310. Our rising wedge structure on futures is much different than SPY when we come to resistance but the same support wise. Currently the red rising wedge resistance sits at 4235 for Monday. FUTURES WEEKLY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/u69lzi3k292b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=d068dd9de9b785bab540ba00f025bd90b794021b On the weekly here you can see that we have the same structure as SPY weekly with the blue rising wedge that slightly bigger followed by the black one. We are now sitting in this 4280 to 4135 channel. Being that we back test the weekly 8ema and 4135 support and was able to hold that shows that we are still bullish here. The black resistance sits at 4243 and the blue rising wedge sits at 4268 for next week. One interesting thing I follow is the JPM collar 7/ 11 week movement. As I said is that usually week 7 to 11 reverses… however, in the chance that the trend does not reverse (which appears to be what is happening right now) then we usually actually see that trend continue even more aggressively. That would mean a potential 3 long bull run could be starting here. That would mean our target is 4300 which is the current JPM collars calls. Futures Weekly Levels Supply- 4193 -> 4284 Demand- 4130 -> 3920 Support- 4184 -> 4132 -> 4075 Resistance- 4230 -> 4283 -> 4328 QQQ DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/zq4mlrmk292b1.png?width=947&format=png&auto=webp&s=80b8aa2662a3a2ece03e20421bd175fa7762d33b Looking at QQQ daily here we absolutely have rocketed since we put in that 331.35 demand. We now are starting to knock on the door of that 351.57 demand now. If this momentum continues which daily DMI and extreme bull momentum says it should we then should start to looked 351.57 demand -> 357.09 supply and finally the ultimate target of 361.7 demand. However, if we were to retrace at all we should find some major support at the 336.37 to 337.6. QQQ WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/008lc44l292b1.png?width=934&format=png&auto=webp&s=1133bcbb0929103ea8a6c3304e13510b96334f1f From the weekly stand point here this charts actually is just insane its pretty much just vertical for the last 2 months now. The bears once again were not able to put in a new weekly supply and the DMI remains waving up with extreme bull momentum. The weekly 8ema which will be around 330.67 next week should once again be considered strong support. As of right now the target remains 361.85 and if we happen to go on that 3 week bull run or a blow off top my target is 382.9/ 384.54 demands. QQQ Weekly Levels Supply- 361.85 -> 330.67 -> 318.64 -> 306.06 Demand- 384.54 -> 382.9 -> 322.47 -> 318.18 VIX https://preview.redd.it/3583bykl292b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d8d1f5b6d23b6604dd2eb79277b201879a0e1d0 Now here on the VIX we also put a new carrot top in… the one really interesting thing to me here is the fact that the VIX dumped pretty aggressively all morning and we saw almost -10% at one point and I thought we were going to approach the 16.92 support area… however, what happened that was very interesting is that the VIX actually continued to rise today even though SPY was rising. There was a lot of oddities about today trading but the biggest one remains that from pretty much 1130 until EOD the VIX continued to hold flat and then began to rise… however, SPY also began to rise. It definitely is a phenomenon that doesn’t occur often and makes trading hard. The VIX closed at 17.95 just under that critical 17.97 support. I will be watching Tuesday to see if the VIX continues to sell off or not. The VIX most certainly was reacting (the market) to the fact that a debt ceiling agreement has NOT been reached and as far as I know they are about to go to recess and will not be back in session until Tuesday. Which means according to Yellen if we run out on the 1st that they will have essentially two full days (Tuesday and Wednesday) to come to an agreement… DXY/ 10YR YIELD https://preview.redd.it/1eemhb0m292b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=6806a17d393e89d6db3160e317d81437bc31f9f1 Now I follow the 10yr and DXY every day but I don’t really talk about it every day… but I do find it very interesting that DXY and 10YR both are in the exact same bull channel since the 2nd week of May. What I also find interesting is that DXY and 10YR daily look like a massive cup and handle which means DXY should hit 105.13 to 105.63 again and 10YR should hit 4.011% to 4.049% again. What really is odd about this is the fact that the last time DXY was at this level was March 13th to March 17th, February 16th to February 23rd, and December 13th to January 6th. Spy traded (at close) 385.36 to 389.99, 408.28 to 400.66 and 401.97 to 388.08 during those time periods for an average SPY closing price of 395.67. That means with our closure at 420.02 SPY is trading 6.1% higher than it was when DXY has traded at these levels in the past or about $25. The last time the 10YR was at these levels was March 10th, February 10th to 15th, January 3rd to 5th and December 23rd. During those time periods SPY traded at close at 385.91, 408.04 to 413.98, 380.82 to 379.38 and 382.91. For an average at close trade price of 389.98 which is about $30 higher than current close or 7.7% higher. What does that mean? Well it could mean everything or it could mean nothing… I just find it interesting that over the last 6 months when the 10YR and DXY have been at these levels historically SPY has been trading much much lower. It also is very odd to watch the 10YR and DYX continue to rise each day as SPY and TECH continues to rise… This all feels very much like something is going to break and its going to break in a big big way… the question is just when. WEEKLY TRADING LOG Today was another tough day of trading for me and I ended up closing out a small red day. The last month or so now I have found it extremely difficult for me to remain profitable on Thursday and Fridays. I seem to be in this cycle of absolutely killing it on Monday through Wednesday and then struggling like crazy on Thursday/ Friday. Honestly for me it all comes down to my strategy. My strategy as I have mentioned relies on the technicals of the market. I do not share my full strat but some things I look at and put a ton of weigh in is momentum, DMI, VOLD and VIX. The hardest part about these explosive rallies we have had lately is the fact that those metrics are not aligning. The other hard part is that there is times where after the huge run up where the technicals will point to a perfect put entry… of course I take that and the issue is that the techncials immediately cycle but little to no movement is ever had. The other issue is that it seems like lately premiums at least the last two days for sure have completely lagged moves. I know this morning I played two puts and a call. None of those seemed despite winning on all three to pay any decent reward. I had a few mid day plays too some I closed small wins/ loss and others I stopped that for the size of the move that happened the premium did not reward us very much at all… https://preview.redd.it/4i7l73jm292b1.png?width=925&format=png&auto=webp&s=f501a90c088cce95ec496bf13f71b44b820d22c9 I actually did close out my most profitable week of the year again and this is now my 8th green week ibn a row making it my longest win streak of 2023 and my 2nd longest of the last 2 years. One interesting this is that this is also my 2nd lowest weekly win rate of 2023. I had a great beginning of the week but lately as I have said I struggled to close. I have a really nice 3 day weekend again and I have a few things I would like to back test and I have the time to do it. I have one more indicator I use and have on my charts all day as I trade but I don’t necessarily use it on every entry… I am considering if its time to put more weight into it… but I will not be able to do that until I back test… I hope you guys all have a great weekend and for any of you who have had a someone you know whether a friend or family member serve and lost their lives defending our country… I truly thank you for your sacrifice. See you guys Tuesday! |
2023.05.27 00:12 DaddyDersch The road to 430 continues… 5-26-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ, VIX, DXY and 10YR YIELD Weekly Market Analysis
![]() | Well it was this time last week that I said I expected us to move to 430s and that we would continue this bull run. The market decided it wanted to pullback and test 410 support first, however, with our first closure over 420 since August 19th I believe this bull run is just getting started. submitted by DaddyDersch to u/DaddyDersch [link] [comments] Looking back I was one day too early on Wednesday with my swing calls… shoulda done 3-7dte like I had considered before. EVENTS https://preview.redd.it/pi86z324292b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=4346691ce1daf5ee3e5684ced273cec3214ced1f First of if you didn’t know… the markets are all closed Monday! We have 4 fed speakers spread out through the week next week. And we also have a ton of heavy hitting data Wednesday through Friday. The most important one that I am waiting is JOLTS Wednesday, non farm Thursday and unemployment rate Friday. MAKE IT MAKE SENSE If you remember post the last two FOMCs JPOW basically said we are not going to stop rate hiking and that will we will not see any rate cuts in 2023… What did markets do? Markets priced in a bunch of rate cuts by EOY (100bps cuts at one point but for the most part it was 75bps) and that sent the markets absolutely rallying… Now look at this… https://preview.redd.it/d8ec8k05292b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8c6bd4b89723f8ba30c2e9a557e749e148d53e8 In the last week the markets have went from a 17.4% odds of a 25bps rate HIKE at the June meeting to now a 71.1% chance of a rate hike… yet what happened this week? We rallied.. https://preview.redd.it/yjuj7tg5292b1.png?width=898&format=png&auto=webp&s=89b562fff8474a15e3ea86825f60aaa250439cd0 Now not only that… but the markets went from just one week ago today pricing in a 44.7% odds of 75bps rate CUTS by end of year to now pricing in 39.4% odds (the highest odds) that we do not see any rate cuts by end of year… Now I know markets can be a bit wacky… but how does it make sense that the markets went from expecting a fed pause and 75bps of rate CUTS by end of year to now expecting 25bps of rate HIKES next meeting and NO CUTS in one week and that week closes green on SPY? SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/a0zuaix5292b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=10dd3604f99d1a047593eb0708eda35e893df2ba On the Daily we officially established a new demand (support) at 414.55. As I suspected if we pushed higher we would indeed make a new demand. The daily DMI is now waving higher and we have a new demand with bullish weekly support… the upside is what I would be looking for here and there is no real sense in shorting SPY right now. We also closed over 418.78 and 419.5 supply… this means until we put a new supply in and we would need two red days back to back to do that our target remains the 429.68 area I pointed out last Friday. SPY WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/jxhsxzf6292b1.png?width=952&format=png&auto=webp&s=85eba7fd1e60de79c5f5ebd3019feac41afab46e On a weekly time frame here the bears actually put up a REALLY big fight and until today the weekly was going to make a new supply and at one point we attempted to set up a closure below the weekly 411.46 demand. Nonetheless though bulls pushed us and we now sit over the 416.09 weekly supply after retesting support of the 411.46 demand. The weekly DMI continues to wave up and we also continue to push higher with no new weekly supply… Our target remains 427.35 and in the chance we blow through that roof I have no major supply level until 453.23. SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/dqim77x6292b1.png?width=905&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d649922440defd8e464f3cd5122ee204b144842 As you can see from the daily here we once action have made a new lower rising wedge support (this has been a theme for a while now). We also had a very nice v bottom off of 410.53 and we have for the first time since August closed over 419.5 resistance. Its not pictured here but this orange channel has a upper resistance of 427.5. As of right now that is the bulls target. We will keep a close eye on that red rising wedge though as this resistance could still with 3 touches hold as resistance into next week. SPY WEEKLY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/bvvroib7292b1.png?width=952&format=png&auto=webp&s=3876771768e321cbc847362ab8011ec65db810d9 As you can see we are in a bigger blue rising wedge that days back to September and we are also in more of a short term black/ blue rising wedge. This blue rising wedge resistance is all the way up at 434.27 for next week and shows a clear path to 430-440 by end of June. The black rising wedge resistance sits at 425.4 for next week. The way this weekly candle with the very long wick bounce off the weekly 8ema is makes me believe in continuation to the upside for next week. SPY Weekly levels Supply- 416.1 -> 427.4 Demand- 411.5 -> 381.7 Support- 418.6 -> 411.6 -> 407.7 Resistance- 422 -> 427.4 -> 431.9 FUTURES DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/sdavtqq7292b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=23ce96dcfd8668ddfb869f9682014f7517f219b6 On the daily chart here for futures we did have one demand left at 4198 and we officially with establishing a new demand (support) at that critical 4156 area actually have just opened the door to the upside in a big way. With a daily closure over 4208/4216 supply our next logical upside target is 4311. FUTURES WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/1325dj58292b1.png?width=669&format=png&auto=webp&s=e3678956810df464adcadfa5ca79515f9027f0d4 Futures weekly is the same story as spy… we attempted to put in a new weekly supply and we also attempted to lose 4130 demand for a while. However as it would be the bulls bounced us right off 4130 demand and now have closed us over 4193 supply. With this move up and the weekly DMI moving up along with no new weekly supply… our favoritism here would be to test 4284 and if we break through that the next major level is all the way up at 4540. FUTURES DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/1s6wstj8292b1.png?width=918&format=png&auto=webp&s=7625bb0196829bab45ea5d13eab5213614832d8e Looking at the daily here on futures we are currently sitting in our 4075 to 4310 channel. Being that we are pushing up that leaves our upside target as 4310. Our rising wedge structure on futures is much different than SPY when we come to resistance but the same support wise. Currently the red rising wedge resistance sits at 4235 for Monday. FUTURES WEEKLY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/qf3v7qx8292b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=3be1e1d0bd2d86e908576e31ce737bc6cbdcb99c On the weekly here you can see that we have the same structure as SPY weekly with the blue rising wedge that slightly bigger followed by the black one. We are now sitting in this 4280 to 4135 channel. Being that we back test the weekly 8ema and 4135 support and was able to hold that shows that we are still bullish here. The black resistance sits at 4243 and the blue rising wedge sits at 4268 for next week. One interesting thing I follow is the JPM collar 7/ 11 week movement. As I said is that usually week 7 to 11 reverses… however, in the chance that the trend does not reverse (which appears to be what is happening right now) then we usually actually see that trend continue even more aggressively. That would mean a potential 3 long bull run could be starting here. That would mean our target is 4300 which is the current JPM collars calls. Futures Weekly Levels Supply- 4193 -> 4284 Demand- 4130 -> 3920 Support- 4184 -> 4132 -> 4075 Resistance- 4230 -> 4283 -> 4328 QQQ DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/qzb5cfe9292b1.png?width=947&format=png&auto=webp&s=4cc74f19fb2d9d4feb6d5d9fc7b5859f487957d6 Looking at QQQ daily here we absolutely have rocketed since we put in that 331.35 demand. We now are starting to knock on the door of that 351.57 demand now. If this momentum continues which daily DMI and extreme bull momentum says it should we then should start to looked 351.57 demand -> 357.09 supply and finally the ultimate target of 361.7 demand. However, if we were to retrace at all we should find some major support at the 336.37 to 337.6. QQQ WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/uyn2h3u9292b1.png?width=934&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ae3c0b3820d954c9282c358a9d15fe39c1c139e From the weekly stand point here this charts actually is just insane its pretty much just vertical for the last 2 months now. The bears once again were not able to put in a new weekly supply and the DMI remains waving up with extreme bull momentum. The weekly 8ema which will be around 330.67 next week should once again be considered strong support. As of right now the target remains 361.85 and if we happen to go on that 3 week bull run or a blow off top my target is 382.9/ 384.54 demands. QQQ Weekly Levels Supply- 361.85 -> 330.67 -> 318.64 -> 306.06 Demand- 384.54 -> 382.9 -> 322.47 -> 318.18 VIX https://preview.redd.it/g0lq049a292b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=e60000b9eacc89573ed12b914f7082c217a332dc Now here on the VIX we also put a new carrot top in… the one really interesting thing to me here is the fact that the VIX dumped pretty aggressively all morning and we saw almost -10% at one point and I thought we were going to approach the 16.92 support area… however, what happened that was very interesting is that the VIX actually continued to rise today even though SPY was rising. There was a lot of oddities about today trading but the biggest one remains that from pretty much 1130 until EOD the VIX continued to hold flat and then began to rise… however, SPY also began to rise. It definitely is a phenomenon that doesn’t occur often and makes trading hard. The VIX closed at 17.95 just under that critical 17.97 support. I will be watching Tuesday to see if the VIX continues to sell off or not. The VIX most certainly was reacting (the market) to the fact that a debt ceiling agreement has NOT been reached and as far as I know they are about to go to recess and will not be back in session until Tuesday. Which means according to Yellen if we run out on the 1st that they will have essentially two full days (Tuesday and Wednesday) to come to an agreement… DXY/ 10YR YIELD https://preview.redd.it/erfdthpa292b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=72cb754c795ac58ae76462d5dc12faaf1dea5e6b Now I follow the 10yr and DXY every day but I don’t really talk about it every day… but I do find it very interesting that DXY and 10YR both are in the exact same bull channel since the 2nd week of May. What I also find interesting is that DXY and 10YR daily look like a massive cup and handle which means DXY should hit 105.13 to 105.63 again and 10YR should hit 4.011% to 4.049% again. What really is odd about this is the fact that the last time DXY was at this level was March 13th to March 17th, February 16th to February 23rd, and December 13th to January 6th. Spy traded (at close) 385.36 to 389.99, 408.28 to 400.66 and 401.97 to 388.08 during those time periods for an average SPY closing price of 395.67. That means with our closure at 420.02 SPY is trading 6.1% higher than it was when DXY has traded at these levels in the past or about $25. The last time the 10YR was at these levels was March 10th, February 10th to 15th, January 3rd to 5th and December 23rd. During those time periods SPY traded at close at 385.91, 408.04 to 413.98, 380.82 to 379.38 and 382.91. For an average at close trade price of 389.98 which is about $30 higher than current close or 7.7% higher. What does that mean? Well it could mean everything or it could mean nothing… I just find it interesting that over the last 6 months when the 10YR and DXY have been at these levels historically SPY has been trading much much lower. It also is very odd to watch the 10YR and DYX continue to rise each day as SPY and TECH continues to rise… This all feels very much like something is going to break and its going to break in a big big way… the question is just when. WEEKLY TRADING LOG Today was another tough day of trading for me and I ended up closing out a small red day. The last month or so now I have found it extremely difficult for me to remain profitable on Thursday and Fridays. I seem to be in this cycle of absolutely killing it on Monday through Wednesday and then struggling like crazy on Thursday/ Friday. Honestly for me it all comes down to my strategy. My strategy as I have mentioned relies on the technicals of the market. I do not share my full strat but some things I look at and put a ton of weigh in is momentum, DMI, VOLD and VIX. The hardest part about these explosive rallies we have had lately is the fact that those metrics are not aligning. The other hard part is that there is times where after the huge run up where the technicals will point to a perfect put entry… of course I take that and the issue is that the techncials immediately cycle but little to no movement is ever had. The other issue is that it seems like lately premiums at least the last two days for sure have completely lagged moves. I know this morning I played two puts and a call. None of those seemed despite winning on all three to pay any decent reward. I had a few mid day plays too some I closed small wins/ loss and others I stopped that for the size of the move that happened the premium did not reward us very much at all… https://preview.redd.it/k4r1z6cb292b1.png?width=925&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a3fbb8f16f733870c5cfaac639c76429d6de69f I actually did close out my most profitable week of the year again and this is now my 8th green week ibn a row making it my longest win streak of 2023 and my 2nd longest of the last 2 years. One interesting this is that this is also my 2nd lowest weekly win rate of 2023. I had a great beginning of the week but lately as I have said I struggled to close. I have a really nice 3 day weekend again and I have a few things I would like to back test and I have the time to do it. I have one more indicator I use and have on my charts all day as I trade but I don’t necessarily use it on every entry… I am considering if its time to put more weight into it… but I will not be able to do that until I back test… I hope you guys all have a great weekend and for any of you who have had a someone you know whether a friend or family member serve and lost their lives defending our country… I truly thank you for your sacrifice. See you guys Tuesday! |
2023.05.26 01:30 nicholaspham Hurting..
2023.05.23 22:46 DaddyDersch The start of the next leg down or classic bear trap? 5-23-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Daily Market Analysis
![]() | Last week I said I was still bullish on SPY and that I did think we would see 430… I still feel that way and I think that we are seeing the pullback before the next move up playing out here perfectly. submitted by DaddyDersch to Daytrading [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/j5rev5148n1b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=e4e3b2a7de1034917c5fc0a15fa243c3970fc1da Before the bears absolutely took the bulls by the horn middle of day and plunged them off the cliff… I was targeting two major support areas on SPY and QQQ for tomorrow… while anyone who follows me know on a daily time frame my timing may not always be perfect (as I expected tomorrow) my levels almost always play out… Being that these levels played out a day early for me… I actually am expecting a bounce tomorrow… or by EOW minimally. SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/otjwp6j48n1b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a342c00a92d48ebe519cf0b242e687807442d06 From a supply and demand standpoint we had a huge day… so we put in a new supply (resistance) at 418.78. This now makes this 418.78 to 419.5 a major supply and resistance area. In doing this we have no retraced all the way back down to take out 416.75, 415.58 and 413.91… we did fall just shy of touching 413.05 supply just under the daily 20ema though. Taking out the daily 8ema is a bearish omen for the markets, however, bouncing off the 20ema like we did today is bullish in nature. This should be seen as a support bounce rather than a bigger sell off for now. However, IF we continue to leg down tomorrow and close a candle under 413.05 supply which is the daily 20ema then I actually might be more apt for a that we see a retrace back to 410.2 demand (Support) before we bounce. This might be an example of being a day early for the bounce. SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/kcf4dz158n1b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=355faf26e99adfec75a5a23346e23346eea90a60 Bears took us all the way down through the daily 8ema and bounced us right off that red support line at 413.7. As of now that should still be considered support until proven other wise. Support for tomorrow of that line will be 414.6 meaning bulls need a small gap up overnight in order to reconfirm and hold that support with hopes of a push up to the 417/418 area. Now if this is the next leg down what bears need to do is break through 414.6 support and most importantly break under the daily 20ema and close a candle below it… If you remember we traded in that 410.2 to 413.9 range for almost 3 weeks before we finally broke out to 420… this actually is a back test of that support of that range. This is the bulls attempt to turn previous resistance into support. Failing to do that would result in a retrace back to the 410 range. To really sell this market off bears need a closure under 410.2. That 410.2 level is our daily demand so that likely would be a major support bounce area for bulls. SPY Daily Levels Supply- 413 -> 418.8 Demand- 410.2 Support- 414.1 -> 412.3 -> 410.2 Resistance- 417.1 -> 418.6 FUTURES DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/ne5zfti58n1b1.png?width=772&format=png&auto=webp&s=bbcfe4413a8874e94033fe5c0cf02f6e743c12ff Nearly identical movement from futes today setting a new supply at 4208. In doing this we would have expected the move down to the 4149/4143 supply area. We did come down and perfectly bounced off 4153. As of right now that is major support to watch. There is a chance overnight bears get this to 4149 to take out that supply but from here I expect a bounce off the daily 20ema. If bears continue their sell off though the biggest support will come at the 4127 demand. FUTURES DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/m5grm0z58n1b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=38f757c2e891b24717544e5c269182d5b2724863 Futures did not quite breakdown and touch that red support line that SPY did today. However, Futures did come down and perfectly back test and bounce off 4153 support form the previous 4122 to 4153 channel. We also are setting up to close exactly on the daily 20ema which would favor a possible double bottom support bounce and move back up. The most probable play out here is a double bottom off 4158 that leads to a move back up to the 4172 to 4188 area. However, if bears manage to break this down further then support is at 4125 if we see back to back selling off happen. Futures Daily Levels Supply- 4149 -> 4208 Demand- 4128 -> 4198 Support- 4158 -> 4125 Resistance- 4172 -> 4189 QQQ Supply and Demand DAILY https://preview.redd.it/bg18edh68n1b1.png?width=948&format=png&auto=webp&s=f21266de53ad1d924773232e7b64114b29e77a7b I said last week I was looking for a possible sell off back to the daily 8ema being that QQQ is in extreme bull momentum in order to find an opportunity for a long entry. We are looking to be getting just that. The daily officially turned 337.63 into a new supply… In doing so we come down and take out 337.29 and 333.11 supply. Now we do have another supply left down below at 326.82 but that is at the daily 20ema. That would be a larger sell off and with us being in extreme bull momentum I would be very surprised to see that move happen (not that it cant happen though). I will be looking for the bulls to bounce off the daily 8ema tomorrow and look for a run back to the 336.37 demand area. However, If this sell off continues then are most probable sell off target is that 326.82 supply which is also the daily 20ema. 325-326 is a pretty strong demand (Support) area that we would need more momentum to break through. QQQ Daily Levels Supply- 337.6 -> 326.82 -> 322.31 Demand- 336.37 -> 325.99 -> 324.99 VIX https://preview.redd.it/lg3pa8178n1b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ca901a671338364512a82007563f88e55219d3f The VIX actually had a really nice breakout today and after bouncing off the 16 support area 3 days ago now this is now retesting critical resistance at 18.86. IF the bears (spy) can close the VIX over 18.86 and target 20.08 then I would believe in a bigger sell off on SPY happening. However, this is a probable rejection area for the VIX. Even if the VIX gets to 20.08 we still honestly are more likely to reject then we are to sell off… There just isn’t any real momentum to the downside and even watching the intraday movement today the dip continues to get bought. With no debt ceiling talks till tomorrow minimum and FOMC minutes at 2pm we likely are to return to a slightly bullish narrative. There is a chance the market could bearishly take what JPOW had to say at FOMC but historically they usually receive FOMC minutes well not poorly. https://preview.redd.it/7webllh78n1b1.png?width=756&format=png&auto=webp&s=381c9c1d4f0b154c12c895aeccb2ba86960c3614 Yellen is scheduled to talk at 1005am though so that could be a true wildcard. Tomorrow with Yellen and FOMC minutes is likely to be very volatile. DAILY TRADING LOG https://preview.redd.it/80diqb888n1b1.png?width=670&format=png&auto=webp&s=0160a0350878dd635a8125d2f1eb1da8be93e0f8 I really struggled this morning in that very tight range and chop… just seemed like premiums weren’t paying out for the move that was happening. However, was really able to capitalize on that mid day sell off and overall had a great day trading. Intraday secured another weeks of profit goal. Currently even if my QQQ and SPY Call lottos go to zero tomorrow I have officially secured 2.5x my weekly profit goal… if they don’t go to zero tomorrow then im sitting at 3x weekly profits goal. Currently assuming my week ends profitable this will be my 8th green week in a row… that makes it tied for my second longest win streak in a row… my longest current win streak (since I have started documenting the way I do now… remember I used to work full time as a nurse and just traded in my off times) is 10 weeks in a row of green. Just for transparency my longest red streak is 4 weeks in a row. |
2023.05.23 22:45 DaddyDersch The start of the next leg down or classic bear trap? 5-23-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Daily Market Analysis
![]() | Last week I said I was still bullish on SPY and that I did think we would see 430… I still feel that way and I think that we are seeing the pullback before the next move up playing out here perfectly. submitted by DaddyDersch to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/xpnzrqlx7n1b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=cfca3733ae3c70c56371aa01abb439fe086702ba Before the bears absolutely took the bulls by the horn middle of day and plunged them off the cliff… I was targeting two major support areas on SPY and QQQ for tomorrow… while anyone who follows me know on a daily time frame my timing may not always be perfect (as I expected tomorrow) my levels almost always play out… Being that these levels played out a day early for me… I actually am expecting a bounce tomorrow… or by EOW minimally. SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/hxa53g2y7n1b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc175a508967bb1e0e0170789e8d9cac3cf3f834 From a supply and demand standpoint we had a huge day… so we put in a new supply (resistance) at 418.78. This now makes this 418.78 to 419.5 a major supply and resistance area. In doing this we have no retraced all the way back down to take out 416.75, 415.58 and 413.91… we did fall just shy of touching 413.05 supply just under the daily 20ema though. Taking out the daily 8ema is a bearish omen for the markets, however, bouncing off the 20ema like we did today is bullish in nature. This should be seen as a support bounce rather than a bigger sell off for now. However, IF we continue to leg down tomorrow and close a candle under 413.05 supply which is the daily 20ema then I actually might be more apt for a that we see a retrace back to 410.2 demand (Support) before we bounce. This might be an example of being a day early for the bounce. SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/4anbi8ly7n1b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=466405364f29c67c25a0ff347e51cc5fd4ebe747 Bears took us all the way down through the daily 8ema and bounced us right off that red support line at 413.7. As of now that should still be considered support until proven other wise. Support for tomorrow of that line will be 414.6 meaning bulls need a small gap up overnight in order to reconfirm and hold that support with hopes of a push up to the 417/418 area. Now if this is the next leg down what bears need to do is break through 414.6 support and most importantly break under the daily 20ema and close a candle below it… If you remember we traded in that 410.2 to 413.9 range for almost 3 weeks before we finally broke out to 420… this actually is a back test of that support of that range. This is the bulls attempt to turn previous resistance into support. Failing to do that would result in a retrace back to the 410 range. To really sell this market off bears need a closure under 410.2. That 410.2 level is our daily demand so that likely would be a major support bounce area for bulls. SPY Daily Levels Supply- 413 -> 418.8 Demand- 410.2 Support- 414.1 -> 412.3 -> 410.2 Resistance- 417.1 -> 418.6 FUTURES DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND https://preview.redd.it/heeklg2z7n1b1.png?width=772&format=png&auto=webp&s=519662e80b9ac77085a70549a277d18c51d37076 Nearly identical movement from futes today setting a new supply at 4208. In doing this we would have expected the move down to the 4149/4143 supply area. We did come down and perfectly bounced off 4153. As of right now that is major support to watch. There is a chance overnight bears get this to 4149 to take out that supply but from here I expect a bounce off the daily 20ema. If bears continue their sell off though the biggest support will come at the 4127 demand. FUTURES DAILY PRICE ACTION https://preview.redd.it/tjx729hz7n1b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=98ddaa876ef8a04e0de3dd79fbfda243054e28cc Futures did not quite breakdown and touch that red support line that SPY did today. However, Futures did come down and perfectly back test and bounce off 4153 support form the previous 4122 to 4153 channel. We also are setting up to close exactly on the daily 20ema which would favor a possible double bottom support bounce and move back up. The most probable play out here is a double bottom off 4158 that leads to a move back up to the 4172 to 4188 area. However, if bears manage to break this down further then support is at 4125 if we see back to back selling off happen. Futures Daily Levels Supply- 4149 -> 4208 Demand- 4128 -> 4198 Support- 4158 -> 4125 Resistance- 4172 -> 4189 QQQ Supply and Demand DAILY https://preview.redd.it/de7nq8zz7n1b1.png?width=948&format=png&auto=webp&s=93498a1053eb6d526ab81b64a62d534b69d3b2fb I said last week I was looking for a possible sell off back to the daily 8ema being that QQQ is in extreme bull momentum in order to find an opportunity for a long entry. We are looking to be getting just that. The daily officially turned 337.63 into a new supply… In doing so we come down and take out 337.29 and 333.11 supply. Now we do have another supply left down below at 326.82 but that is at the daily 20ema. That would be a larger sell off and with us being in extreme bull momentum I would be very surprised to see that move happen (not that it cant happen though). I will be looking for the bulls to bounce off the daily 8ema tomorrow and look for a run back to the 336.37 demand area. However, If this sell off continues then are most probable sell off target is that 326.82 supply which is also the daily 20ema. 325-326 is a pretty strong demand (Support) area that we would need more momentum to break through. QQQ Daily Levels Supply- 337.6 -> 326.82 -> 322.31 Demand- 336.37 -> 325.99 -> 324.99 VIX https://preview.redd.it/elwg2ng08n1b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=80517c7a8dbc35e92590dba9b9a1062aef7261a3 The VIX actually had a really nice breakout today and after bouncing off the 16 support area 3 days ago now this is now retesting critical resistance at 18.86. IF the bears (spy) can close the VIX over 18.86 and target 20.08 then I would believe in a bigger sell off on SPY happening. However, this is a probable rejection area for the VIX. Even if the VIX gets to 20.08 we still honestly are more likely to reject then we are to sell off… There just isn’t any real momentum to the downside and even watching the intraday movement today the dip continues to get bought. With no debt ceiling talks till tomorrow minimum and FOMC minutes at 2pm we likely are to return to a slightly bullish narrative. There is a chance the market could bearishly take what JPOW had to say at FOMC but historically they usually receive FOMC minutes well not poorly. https://preview.redd.it/ndrrkwv08n1b1.png?width=756&format=png&auto=webp&s=654018e23491d451e942967ccbfa2222fd1a7a11 Yellen is scheduled to talk at 1005am though so that could be a true wildcard. Tomorrow with Yellen and FOMC minutes is likely to be very volatile. DAILY TRADING LOG https://preview.redd.it/5il29mb18n1b1.png?width=670&format=png&auto=webp&s=908eb23f35c3077d87c6855c63ccab1292ea5aa2 I really struggled this morning in that very tight range and chop… just seemed like premiums weren’t paying out for the move that was happening. However, was really able to capitalize on that mid day sell off and overall had a great day trading. Intraday secured another weeks of profit goal. Currently even if my QQQ and SPY Call lottos go to zero tomorrow I have officially secured 2.5x my weekly profit goal… if they don’t go to zero tomorrow then im sitting at 3x weekly profits goal. Currently assuming my week ends profitable this will be my 8th green week in a row… that makes it tied for my second longest win streak in a row… my longest current win streak (since I have started documenting the way I do now… remember I used to work full time as a nurse and just traded in my off times) is 10 weeks in a row of green. Just for transparency my longest red streak is 4 weeks in a row. |